What is currently going on with Tesla shares?
 
Should I buy Tesla shares today? Should I sell my Tesla shares? Are Tesla short-sellers wrong?
 
Well let’s get into it in this thread

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$1 billion more than Buffet. Tesla is now the most valuable carmaker in the world, but why is all of this happening now?
 
I believe it is mainly because of the speculation that Tesla is going to be added to the S&P 500.
 
What is the S&P 500? The S&P 500 is a fund that owns
shares in the top 500 publicly traded companies in the US such that if you buy 1 unit of the S&P 500, you essentially own a piece of all the 500 stocks within their portfolio. This also means you can benefit from the gains of the top 500 companies in the US without the fear of
losing all your money if 1 of the companies goes bankrupt.

Why is this speculation significant enough to drive up the price of Tesla shares? If Tesla becomes listed as part of the S&P 500, it would mean that the fund would invest some money in Tesla, thus increasing the
available money chasing Tesla stock (demand for the stock), which would increase the price. I explained how demand and supply affect the price of a share in this thread 👇🏾
 
Are people right to speculate that Tesla would be added to the S&P 500? How likely is Tesla to be added to https://twitter.com/je_dna/status/1268486982994407428
the S&P 500?
 
To be eligible to be listed in the S&P 500, companies need to do the following:

The total value of the company’s outstanding shares (market capitalization) should be at least $8.2 billion – Tesla’s market capitalization is over $200 billion, so ✅. Fun fact, with
Tesla’s current market cap., Tesla is currently larger than 95% of the companies that are currently listed on the S&P 500

Be based in the US – ✅

Be structured as a corporation and offer common stock and has been at least a year since its IPO – ✅

Be listed on an eligible US
exchange – ✅

Have positive reported earnings over the 4 most recent quarters – Tesla has not met this yet, but they have reported positive earnings over the last 3 quarters and their next reporting date is exactly 1 week from today (July 22). All Tesla has to do is report a
profit and they would meet the full minimum requirement.
 
After meeting the minimum requirement, the next stage before they can be added to the S&P 500 is for the index committee which consists of 9 people to vote on whether or not the stock should be added to the index. These 9
people meet once every month, so in their next meeting, if they decide to add Tesla to the fund, the decision would be announced to the public
 
Given this information, I think there’s a pretty decent chance that Tesla would get listed on the S&P 500.

If we’re right & Tesla gets
added to the S&P 500, how much would this affect Tesla’s stock price?

Any time a stock is going to be added to the index, the decision is announced to the public before the fund managers actually buy the stock. This leaves time for speculators and investors to buy that stock to
profit from the increase in price that’d occur after the announcement & when the stock is eventually added to the index.

Research has shown that stocks increase in value after the official announcement of their addition to the S&P 500. For example, back in 2013, Facebook’s share
price went up by 4% after S&P announced that they would be adding the S&P 500.
 
In November 1999, when it was announced that Yahoo would be added to the S&P 500, the share price increased by 64% in the 5 trading days between the announcement and when it was added to the index on
December 7.
 
But here’s the thing, after the stock is added to the index, the demand slows down & investors who bought due to the announcement in hopes of making a quick profit also sell off their shares to take profit which would cause the price to fall again. The stock price
would eventually stabilize after this process has taken place.
 
In short, the increase/pump in stock price after a stock is announced that they would be added to the S&P 500 is short term and temporary. It could last anywhere from a week to 2 months. The announcement of the
decision to add Tesla to the S&P 500 would do more for the stock price than when the stock is added to the index.
 
It is important to note that the market price of companies typically reacts to new information. Since the facts already show that Tesla is very likely going to be
added to the S&P 500, the share price we see today has probably already included the effect of that information (i.e. the market has already priced in the information). So, don’t expect the returns to be as high as Yahoo’s.
 
Conclusion: Tesla is more than just a car manufacturer
they’re a mix between a tech company that gathers data and an energy company that develops solar and batteries. Thus, making it even that much more difficult to value accurately. Tesla’s stock price is an enigma. For example, JP Morgan currently estimates that the value of the
company’s share to be worth $295, an analyst at Piper Sandler increased his price target for Tesla to $2,322 from the previous estimate of $939 5 months ago, while Ark invest estimates that Tesla’s expected stock price would be $7,000 in 2024.

Should I buy Tesla shares today?
The current price of Tesla’s share is pretty high, there’s a decent chance that you might not make that much profit if you buy today but if you are comfortable with taking that risk and you don’t mind holding the shares for long if that risk doesn’t pay off, then sure go for it.
If not, you might want to either err on the side of caution and wait or invest an amount that you are comfortable losing.
 
Should I sell my Tesla shares today? Maybe hold out a bit and wait for the announcement to see how the market reacts. If you invested at least a month
ago, then you’ve already made a sizeable amount, waiting a bit more might lose or make you some money but at the very least, you would be better off than where you were when you initially invested
 
Are Tesla short-sellers wrong? I believe they are right about the price falling
in the future, but are they right about the point it would fall to? Only time would tell plus it might take quite a while before the stock price would prove them to be right. Finally, hindsight is 20-20. Make your decision based on what YOU think is right and not just what you
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