Thread by @A_S_Moriarty, I was looking forward to speaking at #sapcasm @sapcacuk this week about [...]

I was looking forward to speaking at #sapcasm @sapcacuk this week about our @NIHRResearch funded work to improve risk prediction and relapse prevention for people with depression in primary care. You can read our abstract here: https://sapc.ac.uk/conference/2020/abstract/prognostic-models-predicting-relapse-of-depression-cochrane-prognosis

Prognostic models for predicting relapse of depression: A Cochrane

ProblemMost people with depression are managed in primary care. After a first episode, approximately half of patients will relapse, and this risk increases for every subsequent episode. Depression

https://sapc.ac.uk/conference/2020/abstract/prognostic-models-predicting-relapse-of-depression-cochrane-prognosis

@CizCG @SimonGilbody @drbobphillips @ChurchillRachel @Richard_D_Riley @Cochrane_CCMD @MHARG_york @HYMS_APC

Short thread for those who are interested...

We published a @BJGP editorial in Feb 2020 outlining the background to this work. https://doi.org/10.3399/bjgp20X707753

Predicting and preventing relapse of depression in primary care

Depression is now the leading cause of disability worldwide.1 The majority of people with depression are managed in primary care.2 There has been a shift in the understanding of depression as a...

https://doi.org/10.3399/bjgp20X707753

-Most people with depression are seen in primary care
-At least half relapse after an episode of depression (most within 6 months)
-Leads to increased severity, treatment resistance and risk of further relapse
-Lack of evidence-based tools and guidance for risk stratification

Prognostic models allow for individualised risk predictions based on information about multiple predictors. Known predictors of relapse include number of previous episodes, residual symptoms & childhood adversity.

Our Cochrane Prognosis review has explored existing prognostic models predicting relapse/recurrence of depression. Protocol below. Full review soon.

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013491/full

Next steps…to build on this review, we will launch our PREDICTR study (to develop a novel prognostic model to PREDICT Relapse of depression in primary care) using data from RCTs (n > 1500).

Developed with #PPI and will be supported further by qualitative work with patients and health professionals. Long-term aim is to improve risk-stratification by GPs to allow for the allocation of relapse prevention interventions to those who need them most in primary care.

Thanks for reading. Look forward to telling you more next year. Questions/thoughts/comments very welcome

You can follow @A_S_Moriarty.

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