GW 37 preview

(will update after each day of games)

Chelsea bounced back with a 1-0 win against Norwich which seems underwhelming considering how poor Norwich have been. Non chelsea owners escaped a scare as both Pulisic and Giroud were lively, and involved.

Giroud produced 8 shots, 1 KP, 3 big chances, and 3 shots in the box. Additionally had an xG of 1.85, xA of 0.34; however, he only managed a goal. Largely underperformed. He was a good punt/captain for free hitters etc, but I’m worried about his minutes. GW 37/38 Giroud punt?

Pulisic looked lively but unable to produce more than an assist. He produced 3 shots, 1 KP, 1 Big Chance, xG 0.45, xA 0.62. A good performance both statistically, and from the eye, but unable to deliver more than 6 points. Owners will be disappointed now but excited for GW 37/38.

In my opinion, David Silva is a good replacenent for Pulisic if you have no pressing issues, as he will surely start his final two games at the club with their congested FA cup fixtures. City are scoring for fun and he tends to play in front of KDB when playing together.

Alonso performed well against Norwich producing 3 shots, 3 KP, xG 0.38, xA 0.21. His minutes are a worry, but his performance was good, and could be a shrewd differential these next two weeks. However, Chelsea have two difficult fixtures in LIV (A), Wolves (H).

I would move on from Chelsea Assets this week as their next two fixtures are some of the toughest in the league. Both City and United have favorable run ins with explosive attacking players.

Pulisic replacement: David Silva, Martial, Foden. Giroud replacement: Ings, Rodriguez, Wood, Greenwood. If money is no issue: Jesus, Vardy, Rashford.

Jimenez has repaid his owners in a week of low scoring big hitters. He registered 3 shots, 2 SoT, xG 0.22. His goal was a lovely finish from a difficult position and shows in his low xG.

I still stand by getting rid of Jimenez two GW’s ago as replacements like Jesus, Ings, and Vardy have performed similarly in FPL returns, but better statistically. Once again he is a bonus king.

Chris wood attempted 3 shots, 1 SoT, xG 1.15 against Leicester. He took Burnley’s penalty which bumped his xG. I usually wouldn’t say he is an option, but with NOR (H) next game he could haul big as a differential.

Jay Rodriguez is being talked about as a similar threat/differential, and has registered 3 goals, 1 assist since the restart, as well as 12 shots, and 3 Key Passes. However, his xG is 1.01, xA 0.63 showing he has over performed quite a bit.

Wolves defence remains solid as they lost their clean sheet to a controversial 90th minute penalty. After taking away the xG from the penalty Burnley only managed an xG of 0.6 all game until the penalty.

If you take that into account, since the restart they have an xGc of 3.54, an average of 0.5 xGc per game. Incredibly resolute defense.

David Silva got off the mark quick as lots of twitter/reddit users believed he would. However, his points total shows he highly over performed today. Producing 1 shot, 1SoT, 1 attempted assist, xG 0.04, xA 0.1, but managing 1 goal, 1 Assist, and 13 points...

Producing 1 shot, 1SoT, 1 attempted assist, xG 0.04, xA 0.1, but managing 1 goal, 1 Assist, and 13 points. He might have been clinical, but Man City as a whole were quite woeful only managing an xG of 0.83 against a terrible B’mouth at home.

I still expect Dilva to perform these next two GW’s as their fixtures are easy, and KDB will provide that creation they lacked today. He should start both games if rested in the FA Cup.

Jesus produced once again, registering 3 shots, 2 SoT, xG 0.33, and 2 bonus. In the past 4 games he has mananged 18 shots, 6 SoT, and 8 AA. Stellar player, good form, good fixtures.

Rotation is a worry, but the FA cup game will give us a better idea. Everything is pointing to this man producing more. Captaincy is definitely an option.

Foden dissapointed a lot of people this GW who gave him the armband. He had a somewhat lively game, producing 2 shots, 1 SoT, 1 AA, xG 0.30, xA 0.1. Another day Jesus may have finished foden’s pass. Either way City underperformed unexpectedly, and showed KDB is extremely valuable

B’mouth played well and should have had a point or 3, but I would stear clear of their players at the moment. SOU (H), EVE (A) are two difficult fixtures and there are plenty of inform options outside of B’mouth.

Harry Kane produced 2 shots, 2 SoT, 1 AA, xG 1.05. xA 0.12 on his way to getting a brace. His low involvement shows he was clinical, but he got into good positions for both goals. Kane could be a good differential to climb fast these next two weeks as Spurs have picked up form.

LEI (H), CRY (A) aren’t the worst fixtures, but definitely not a walk in the park. I like Man U/ Man City assets better, and will stick to them. 7 shots, 6 SoT, 5 AA in his past two games.

Son put up similar stats to Kane with 2 shots, 2 SoT, and xG 0.12. His goal squeezed through Yedlin’s leg and his other shot was from 35 yards out. I like Kane a lot more than Son at the moment.

Saint Maximin had a very lively day at the office producing 6 shots, 3 SoT, 3 AA, xG 0.13, xA 0.14. Low xG/xA but still very active, unlucky to not register a return. He would be a good, cheap differential, but LIV (H) GW 38+ puts me off.

Salah dissapointed once again producing 4 shots, 2 SoT, xG 1.03 but managed to return nothing again. His past 2 games he’s registered 10 shots, 6 SoT, 3 AA, xG 2.00, xA 0.34, but only 4 points.

In comparison, Jesus has similarly registered 10 shots, 3 SoT, 3 AA, xG 2.27, xA 0.7, but returned 22 points, with two goals and 2 assists. I’d say Salah owners/captainers have been very unlucky!

Mane was the more lively/clincial of the two today producing 6 shots, 2 SoT, 4 AA, xG 0.93, xA 0.47. A sideways move is pointless, but if bringing one in Mane may be a differential, and interesting pick. His past two GW’s he’s produced 10 shots, 9 AA.

TAA once again was very involved, but gave nothing back to his loyal owners. He produced 2 shots, 1 SoT, 3 AA, xG 0.04, xA 0.67, dissapointing to come away with 0 after a yellow card. His stats back him to perform in the future, so he should not be leaving your team.

Robertson has outperfomed TAA since the restart 34-23. Robertson vs TAA stats since Restart: 1G, 3A, 5 shots (3 SoT), 12 AA vs 1G, 0A, 5 shots (1 SoT), 6AA.

Clearly Robertson is the better pick at the moment, but at this stage in the season it is a sideways move. Stick to whichever you have. Get Robertson if you want either one.

Lacazette performed well producing 1 shot, 1 SoT, 1AA, xG 0.57, xA 0.60. Very clinical today. However, he is prone to rotation/bench so is a very risky option. Too expensive to gamble.

Instead, I would take a punt on Aubameyang. He was rested today for the FA Cup game, but I expect him to play the final two games of the season. Villa (A), Watford (H) are too easy games which he could very possibly haul.

He is running for the Golden Boot and will have extra incentive. Arsenal have gained some form lately under Arteta, and he is their main man.