1) Montreal is now witnessing a #COVID19 surge arising from the city’s bars and nightclubs in the past few days. (See the new chart below.) In this thread, I will explain how this reflects poorly on Quebec’s screening program and warn of the great risk of keeping bars open.

2) Since Saturday, when the public health department urged all Montrealers who’ve visited bars since July 1 to get tested, the number of #COVID cases has risen steadily, as well as the number of drinking establishments involved. Initially, it was five bars. By Tuesday, it was 10.

3) Some employees and customers tested positive for the #coronavirus at the Bar MINÉRAL in the Gay Village. (Out of concern for possible stigmatization against the LGBTQ community, it’s worth stating the obvious here: these cases have nothing to do with sexual orientation.)

4) The Bar MINÉRAL reopened on Tuesday after making modifications to reinforce public health measures. Other bars in the Village have closed proactively as their staff get tested. As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 30 Montrealers who work in or visited bars have tested positive.

5) For weeks, I’ve railed nightly on Twitter about the lack of a coherent #COVID testing strategy. Quebec's low test numbers are abysmal. I’ve urged authorities to publicize screening and to test asymptomatic individuals. Belatedly, this has now occurred with the bar testing.

6) Before the weekend ramp-up in screening, the positive rate in Montreal’s #COVID testing dropped as low as 0.5%. By Tuesday, it climbed to 3%, still below the 10% rate during the peak of the #pandemic in late April. But the increase nonetheless worries public health experts.

7) The stats prove authorities were under-testing. Previously, officials claimed the low numbers reflected scant interest by the public, a problem Ontario hasn't experienced. Please view the @mtlgazette video below of the incredibly long line-up Tuesday. https://twitter.com/mtlgazette/status/1283144005593726977

8) The increase in the positive testing rate also signals that the highly contagious #coronavirus has been spreading undetected in the community for a while. “The increase in transmission worries us,” said Dr. David Kaiser, of the Montreal public health department.

9) Kaiser attributed this not only to the reopening of the city’s bars and nightclubs, but to the fact that many mostly younger Montrealers have been holding big house parties and barbecues recently. So much for Quebec’s vaunted adherence to #PhysicalDistancing.

10) Despite the surge in bar-related #COVID19 infections, Premier @francoislegault so far appears unworried, asserting on Tuesday that the situation is under control. Unfortunately, we’ve heard lines like that before during this #pandemic.

11) Montreal declared 33 #COVID cases Tuesday, up from 25 the day before. By comparison, the Montérégie reported 48. The South Shore has also been dealing with large house parties and a bar outbreak. The orange line in the city chart below shows an uptick in cases since July 6.

12) Meanwhile, the metropolis posted two fatalities Tuesday, compared with Montreal’s daily record of 104 set on May 7. The city’s #pandemic death toll stands at 3,426, as the light blue line in the chart below shows. For context: Australia has so far observed 108 #COVID deaths.

13) Four months into the #pandemic, this is where we're at: #COVID19 transmission is on the rise amid infections in bars. Yet the Premier is in no rush to close them, content to assume drinkers will sit two metres from each other at tables. This beggars belief. End of thread.

Addendum: There is an incorrect number in the chart in Tweet 1. All the cumulative numbers of #COVID cases and dates are correct, but Tuesday’s new cases figure should be 12, not 20. Thanks to those who spotted this. My apologies. Corrected chart below.