So let& #39;s go through every relevant metric -- deaths, hospitalizations, transmissibility, side effects -- to see why schools should re-open. https://twitter.com/elikasadeghi/status/1283133178429837313?s=20">https://twitter.com/elikasade...
First, the most recent US Census chart is below. To summarize:
82M Americans are 0-24 (25.3% of total population).
Just 24M Americans are 75 are older (6.57% of total population.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/age-and-sex/2019-age-sex-composition.html">https://www.census.gov/data/tabl...
82M Americans are 0-24 (25.3% of total population).
Just 24M Americans are 75 are older (6.57% of total population.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/age-and-sex/2019-age-sex-composition.html">https://www.census.gov/data/tabl...
So the first metric is deaths. Obviously not the only statistic to observe (I never said it was) -- but it is self-evidently the most important thing we are trying to avoid.
179 C19 deaths in age 0-24.
68,417 C19 deaths age 75+.
Deaths directly correlate w/ age.
179 C19 deaths in age 0-24.
68,417 C19 deaths age 75+.
Deaths directly correlate w/ age.
Standing alone, this is an absolutely remarkable statistic.
People age 0-24 are 25.3% of the population yet account for .15% of recorded deaths at CDC.
People age 75+ are just 6.57% of the population yet account for 60.1% of deaths.
That& #39;s...at least something to consider?
People age 0-24 are 25.3% of the population yet account for .15% of recorded deaths at CDC.
People age 75+ are just 6.57% of the population yet account for 60.1% of deaths.
That& #39;s...at least something to consider?
Next data point is hospitalizations. The argument against opening would be, "Well, maybe they get sick, take up beds, etc."
But that& #39;s not true either.
Per CDC& #39;s weekly summary ending July 4, hospitalization rates also directly correlate with age.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-07-10-2020.pdf">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
But that& #39;s not true either.
Per CDC& #39;s weekly summary ending July 4, hospitalization rates also directly correlate with age.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview-07-10-2020.pdf">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
Note that you can barely see hospitalization rates for 0-4 and 5-17.
And if that visual representation was not enough, look at this table.
People aged 65 and older are 72 times more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 5-17.
And if that visual representation was not enough, look at this table.
People aged 65 and older are 72 times more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 5-17.
So what about parents/teachers? We do not want to open if schools could become a COVID breeding ground to spread elsewhere.
Yet, unfortunately, our essential workers were forced into a live experiment by putting their kids in daycares. https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns">https://www.npr.org/2020/06/2...
Yet, unfortunately, our essential workers were forced into a live experiment by putting their kids in daycares. https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns">https://www.npr.org/2020/06/2...
The results? YMCA and NYC& #39;s BOE collectively cared for 50,000 kids at 1,270 sites.
"The Y says a few staff members and parents at sites...did test positive, but there are no records of having more than one case at a site. This, among a population of essential workers."
"The Y says a few staff members and parents at sites...did test positive, but there are no records of having more than one case at a site. This, among a population of essential workers."
"In a separate, unscientific survey...Brown University economist Emily Oster found that...among 916 centers serving more than 20,000 children, just over 1% of staff and 0.16% of children were confirmed infected with the coronavirus."
This is consistent w/ findings in Europe.
This is consistent w/ findings in Europe.
This live experiment was partially conducted in NYC -- the pandemic& #39;s epicenter -- and among essential workers, no less.
It should resolve public health official& #39;s general* fears that kids will get sick and transmit the virus to parents or teachers.
It should resolve public health official& #39;s general* fears that kids will get sick and transmit the virus to parents or teachers.
So what about long term effects?
I& #39;m a dad of a 16-month old. The multi-immune system stories scared the fuck out of me.
Fortunately, these terrible side effects are extremely rare and are mostly treatable. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/infographic-mis-c.html">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
I& #39;m a dad of a 16-month old. The multi-immune system stories scared the fuck out of me.
Fortunately, these terrible side effects are extremely rare and are mostly treatable. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/infographic-mis-c.html">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
CDC observed 186 cases in 26 states from March 15 to May 20. Four kids tragically died.
Again, I& #39;m a parent. I& #39;d probably move to Mongolia and kill myself if my son died.
But 186 cases in 26 states means that these side-effects are ***extremely*** rare.
Again, I& #39;m a parent. I& #39;d probably move to Mongolia and kill myself if my son died.
But 186 cases in 26 states means that these side-effects are ***extremely*** rare.
There& #39;s also long-term lung issues to consider.
Per University of Maryland: long-term lung risk is "unknown," but, "Often coronavirus symptoms are the same as the common cold, which usually does not leave lasting damage to the lungs."
https://www.umms.org/childrens/coronavirus/protecting-our-kids/kids-covid">https://www.umms.org/childrens...
Per University of Maryland: long-term lung risk is "unknown," but, "Often coronavirus symptoms are the same as the common cold, which usually does not leave lasting damage to the lungs."
https://www.umms.org/childrens/coronavirus/protecting-our-kids/kids-covid">https://www.umms.org/childrens...
Unknown is admittedly scary, but we have to balance that w/ *known* consequences of school closures --
-Stress on families
-Kids falling behind
-Increased suicides/overdoses
-Extremely negative consequences for socioeconomically disadvantaged https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21223585/school-closure-impact-students-children">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21...
-Stress on families
-Kids falling behind
-Increased suicides/overdoses
-Extremely negative consequences for socioeconomically disadvantaged https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21223585/school-closure-impact-students-children">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21...
So, in summary, kids age 0-17 are extremely unlikely to:
1) Die from COVID;
2) Be hospitalized w/ COVID;
3) Transmit COVID; and
4) Have side effects from COVID.
This is perhaps the only silver lining of this horrible fucking virus.
1) Die from COVID;
2) Be hospitalized w/ COVID;
3) Transmit COVID; and
4) Have side effects from COVID.
This is perhaps the only silver lining of this horrible fucking virus.
So, perhaps I& #39;m just a prissy, innumerate dumbass.
But to me, the only silver lining of this disease -- kids are generally spared -- means our highest national priority should be reopening schools this fall.
/END
But to me, the only silver lining of this disease -- kids are generally spared -- means our highest national priority should be reopening schools this fall.
/END