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Math lesson.
If there are a lot more many white people than Black people in America (spoiler alert: there are), then it is entirely possible that there will be more white people overall with experience X, but more danger of experience X for Black people. https://twitter.com/nick_ramsey/status/1283135825593675778
If there are a lot more many white people than Black people in America (spoiler alert: there are), then it is entirely possible that there will be more white people overall with experience X, but more danger of experience X for Black people. https://twitter.com/nick_ramsey/status/1283135825593675778
I will show you why, with a quick exercise with totally made-up (but easy) numbers. You need a pencil and paper.
1. Draw a big square.
2. Divide the square into 4 equal parts vertically, so you have 4 columns.
3. Divide into 4 equal parts horizontally so you have 4 rows intersecting the 4 columns.
Now your big square is made up of 16 little squares.
2. Divide the square into 4 equal parts vertically, so you have 4 columns.
3. Divide into 4 equal parts horizontally so you have 4 rows intersecting the 4 columns.
Now your big square is made up of 16 little squares.
Let's assume that there are 16 people total in America, and 4 of them are Black, and 12 of them are white. (Remember: easy, made-up numbers.) Each little square represents 1 person.
4. Label 1 column "Black people" and the other 3 columns "white people."
4. Label 1 column "Black people" and the other 3 columns "white people."
Let's assume that 2 Black people are sick.
5. Color in the bottom 2 squares in the "Black people" column.
Let's assume that 3 white people are sick.
6. Color in the bottom square in each of the 3 "white people" column.
5. Color in the bottom 2 squares in the "Black people" column.
Let's assume that 3 white people are sick.
6. Color in the bottom square in each of the 3 "white people" column.
Now you have a graph that shows you both the number of people who are sick. 2 Black people + 3 white people = 5 people.
But the graph also shows you the likelihood that a random individual in each group is sick.
But the graph also shows you the likelihood that a random individual in each group is sick.
2 out of 4 Black people are sick. 2 ÷ 4 = 0.50, or 50%, so if all you know about a person is that they are Black, then you know there is a 50% chance they are sick.
3 out of 12 white people are sick. 3 ÷ 12 = 0.25, or 25%, so if all you know about a person is that they are white, then you know there is a 25% chance they are sick.
And you can see that on the graph. Total number of squares colored in in the Black column versus total number of squares in the white columns shows you how many are sick. How high the colored-in stacks are in each shows you the risk of being sick. The Black stack is twice as high
It works the same for COVID except the numbers are way more complicated. There are *more total* white people getting sick, but (for all kinds of reasons that are out of their control) the pandemic is *more dangerous* for Black people.
When the President changes the subject from *risk* to *total number*, either he doesn't know how the numbers work and he is confused, or he is hoping we don't know (some people don't) and he is trying to avoid talking about *risk*.
He has advisors who have explained this.
He has advisors who have explained this.
Please do not comment about the President's intelligence or ignorance. People not knowing things is different from people making choices that hurt others. The President has advisors and he is making choices. Let's focus on his choices and not insult people who don't know things.
