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* @michelleinbklyn @nytimes great op ed on key q' of our time: When will life return to normal? No one knows, but most likely #COVID19 will be major health/econ dislocation, getting back to normal by early 2022. Why 2 year span? What does normal look like?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/opinion/us-coronavirus-trump.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/opinion/us-coronavirus-trump.html
Best model is flu pandemics & many, including 1918, suggest 2 year span. #COVID19 will follow epidemic curve. #SARSCoV2 will NOT go away. We'll live w/ it for generations. But we'll learn to gradually manage by combo of 1) immune memory from mounting cases, 2) vaccines, 3) Rx
Two key misconceptions re #COVID19: 1) It'll just end like #SARS or #Ebola. These viruses were so lethal they killed their hosts. #SARSCoV2 spreads rapidly, also asymptomatically and it isn't highly lethal. It will be with us for generations & we'll learn to live with it.
Second misconception re #COVID: A #vaccine will be a magic bullet- it won't. Likely only partially effective (like flu vaccine), may need >1 dose, & will take time to manufacture at scale. At first, will be scarce. #COVID19 vaccine belongs to the world. We'll need 6 bil doses.
So, getting back to normal won't suddenly happen. It'll take time, gradual, non-linear process. But normal may not be like before. Will we maintain health behaviors? Avoid crowds (malls, bars, restaurants)? Humans are social. What happened after 1918 pandemic? Ans: Roaring 20s!
