* @michelleinbklyn @nytimes great op ed on key q& #39; of our time: When will life return to normal? No one knows, but most likely #COVID19 will be major health/econ dislocation, getting back to normal by early 2022. Why 2 year span? What does normal look like?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/opinion/us-coronavirus-trump.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/1...

Best model is flu pandemics & many, including 1918, suggest 2 year span. #COVID19 will follow epidemic curve. #SARSCoV2 will NOT go away. We& #39;ll live w/ it for generations. But we& #39;ll learn to gradually manage by combo of 1) immune memory from mounting cases, 2) vaccines, 3) Rx

Two key misconceptions re #COVID19: 1) It& #39;ll just end like #SARS or #Ebola. These viruses were so lethal they killed their hosts. #SARSCoV2 spreads rapidly, also asymptomatically and it isn& #39;t highly lethal. It will be with us for generations & we& #39;ll learn to live with it.

Second misconception re #COVID: A #vaccine will be a magic bullet- it won& #39;t. Likely only partially effective (like flu vaccine), may need >1 dose, & will take time to manufacture at scale. At first, will be scarce. #COVID19 vaccine belongs to the world. We& #39;ll need 6 bil doses.

So, getting back to normal won& #39;t suddenly happen. It& #39;ll take time, gradual, non-linear process. But normal may not be like before. Will we maintain health behaviors? Avoid crowds (malls, bars, restaurants)? Humans are social. What happened after 1918 pandemic? Ans: Roaring 20s!