[Captain Thread GW36+]

I've been out and about today and only just got back, so with only 3 and a half hours left, sadly can't fit the 'Captain Metric piece' in however, I'm going to do a thread using some stats from the members section of @FFScout - highly recommended!

...

Let's start with the defence side of things...

Expected goals conceded since restart:

1st NEW - 12.48
2nd BHA - 10.18
3rd NOR - 9.88
4th CRY - 9.84
4th SHU - 9.84
5th ARS - 9.25
6th SOU - 8.89
7th BOU - 8.85

13th AVL - 7.28

Both ARS, SHU +AVL have played 1 extra game...

Now the attack (just including the teams we may consider a captain for)...

Expected goals since restart:

1st MCI - 19.21
2nd CHE - 12.73
3rd MUN - 11.49
4th WHU - 11.32
5th LIV - 9.16
6th LEI - 8.78
7th SOU - 8.74

12th ARS - 7.59
14th TOT - 6.86

Obvious from the above that the team with the highest ceiling is Man City. Problem as we all know is Pep Roulette.

Unlikely we'll get it right, but consider the data and make your own judgement and stick to it! Thought this was great from @Legomane_FPL https://twitter.com/Legomane_FPL/status/1282224810160988160?s=20

Mins per xGI since restart (excluding non regulars) [MIDs]:

Antonio - 71.1
Salah - 97.2
KDB - 97.5
Mahrez - 99.4
Willian - 110.1
Bruno - 114
Sterling - 123.1
Traore - 126.2
Martial - 137.4
Stanislas - 137.9
Foden - 139.9
D. Silva - 141.4

Mane - 174
Pulisic - 217
Richa - 384.4

Mins per xGI since restart (excluding non regulars) [FWDs]:

Abraham - 63.2
Iheanacho - 95.1
Gabriel Jesus - 100
Rashford - 104.1
Giroud - 175.8
Deeney - 180
Ings - 182
Jimenez - 199.6
Aubameyang - 212.7

DCL - 483.2
Greenwood - 484.4

Anytime goalscorer odds as put forward by @fplsalah1 https://twitter.com/fplsalah1/status/1282925294504927233?s=20

MY VIEW

Those are the stats and it may be enough to confirm your bias. My advice is to try to make your own judgement.

If you have a strong gut feeling, I would always recommend following it.

If not, try to be objective and break down the facts/data.

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If you're struggling to make sense of all the stats AND you don't have a gut feeling on anything, then as I said last week, play it safe, and simply captain the player that is leading the polls to minimise any damage

Let your differentials do the talking

My feeling is that I want to target a MCI player as I see them scoring the most goals but the only player I'm 100% confident will start is Phil Foden and I'm not sure I completely trust him after seeing him fluff some extremely easy chances...

Raheem Sterling, IMO, is a good one to pick, as; if he starts then he's probably got the highest upside, if he doesn't and comes on from the bench, then I still think he can haul and if he doesn't come on at all, then you get your VC activated...

Gabriel Jesus, I believe, starts and comes off around 60 as he has been doing to keep up the "rhythm" Pep likes to go on about.

He's just hit a nice bit of form and I doubt Pep would want to lose that.

Has a very strong mins per xGI so I expect, if he starts, to do well.

Chelsea of course aren't far behind City in terms of ceiling with them playing Norwich, but put simply, I don't trust them as much as I trust City to find the goals.

They can be inconsistent as we've seen many times this year under Frank but both Willian/Pulisic look a good bet

Giroud/Tammy could be good, particularly Tammy if he starts (can get the hauls whereas Giroud seems to be a bit of a one goal merchant), but it's probably likely Giroud starts this one and then you're looking at around 60-65 mins.

I actually very much like Mo Salah this week for the captaincy.

He looks so hungry for goals and is right up there underlying stats wise. In addition to that, ARS's defence isn't the best and have the FA Cup to worry about.

He also has an amazing record against them!

Both Martial and Bruno are also right up there for me this GW.

Palace have conceded the most amount of big chances (16) since the restart and there's not a lot to suggest United will slow down in attack, especially after last night's poor result - they will need to go for it!

CONCLUDING

My personal ranking of captaincy candidates for this GW based on the above stats and my own opinion:

1st - Sterling
2nd - Bruno
3rd - Salah
4th - Foden/Jesus
5th - Martial
6th - Willian/Pulisic

Outside punt of Giroud/Tammy early team news dependent!

Best of luck to you all for GW36+

Any RTs/Likes much appreciated as always!

@emmamereta @fpl_chef @FPL_Guidance @Gameweek38 @5tephenTownsend @DonaldsonESPN @doksan @RaviSaggo16 @FPL_UTD @marz05 @Frankwalsh82 @JamesDrewery @CalledItFPL @FPLEditor