Thread by @GuruFantasyWrld, Making The Case Against Tyler Higbee Non-Existent Through 3 Years Snap Share [...]

Making The Case Against Tyler Higbee

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Non-Existent Through 3 Years

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Snap Share Going Forward?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Route Share Going Forward?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> 5-Game Stretch in ’19 = Fluky

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Valued Blocker

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Target Competition

[A THREAD]

The case against Tyler Higbee is not an indictment of Tyler Higbee’s talent – let’s make that clear.

The case against Tyler Higbee is built on all of the other underlying factors working against him.

& there are quite a few factors…

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Unproductive Through 3 Years

Simply put, Tyler Higbee was non-existent from a fantasy perspective through his first 3 1/2 years with the Rams. Through 3 seasons, he never cleared:

25 REC’s
295 YD’s
or 2 TD’S

Through 59 career games, he’d yet to have a single 100-yard game.

He had just 4 total TD’s…

For fantasy, he wasn’t just below-average – he was completely useless, despite how “talented” he may have been.

Here’s a look back:

Higbee was drafted by Les Snead & Jeff Fisher. As a rookie, in 2016, he played behind Lance Kendricks.

Kendricks played 82.3% of the snaps & caught 50/499/2
Higbee played 40.1% of the snaps & caught 11/85/1

Kendricks left at the end of 2016… but…

Gerald Everett scorched the combine that offseason with a 4.62 40/37.5” vertical/22 bench rep split, so Les Snead & first-year head coach Sean McVay decided to draft him in RD2 (44th overall) a year after Snead & Jeff Fisher took Higbee in RD4.

In that second year for Higbee, 2017, his snap share rose from his rookie year & he significantly out-snapped rookie Gerald Everett.

But he hardly out-produced him.

Higbee played on 70.5% of the snaps & caught 25/295/1
Everett played on 28.8% of the snaps & caught 16/244/2

In 2018 – Higbee’s 3rd year & Everett’s 2nd – Higbee’s snap % & production stayed almost exactly the same as it was in & #39;17.

On the other hand, Everett saw both his snap % & production jump.

Higbee played on 71.6% of snaps - 24/292/2
Everett played on 34.5% of snaps - 33/320/3

The Rams then surprisingly signed Tyler Higbee to a 4-year extension, despite his lack of really any receiving production through 3 years.

What does that mean?

It means the Rams valued his ability to provide value in another way – as a blocker.

Last year, 2019, who can forget?

It was Higbee’s fourth year & Everett’s third & the Rams continued to deploy (an already extended) Higbee in a blocking role – the one they paid him handsomely to occupy, while Everett continued to see increased involvement in the passing game...

Everett even started to eat into Higbee’s snap share.

The snap % split to start last season looked like this:

Higbee - Everett

52 - 39
34 - 71 (Higbee hurt)
OUT - 88
45 - 57
56 - 81
57 - 53
64 - 74
55 - 48
BYE
32 - 70
76 - 25
70 - 31 (Everett hurt)

Through those first 11 weeks:

Higbee – 21/192/1 (16-gm pace - 30/279/2)
Everett – 35/385/2 (16-gm pace - 50/560/3)

Higbee was being used the same way he had been used – as a blocker.

Everett was being used as the preferred receiving option.

Just look at the route charts...

Higbee = Blocker

Everett = Receiver

Then, Everett banged up his knee in Week 12 & Higbee went on a crazy 5-game stretch while soaking up nearly 100% of the snaps & essentially all of Everett’s routes. Higbee’s snap % in those last 5 games was:

91
97
86
89
96

Higbee’s route chart during those 5 weeks literally looks like if you combined his & Everett’s route charts from the first-half of the year. He was able to run all of his own routes + Everett’s while letting Johnny Mundt take over his blocking responsibilities...

Higbee went for 43/522/2 over those last 5 games – absolutely glorious. But a deeper look reveals that maybe that production is not quite as glorious as we’d like to believe…

Higbee faced AZ twice, SEA, DAL, & SF...

AZ – who Higbee faced twice – were BY FAR the easiest matchup for TE’s. They allowed 317.8 points to TE’s in & #39;19 – more than 65 fantasy points more than the 2nd-most allowed to TE’s, who coincidentally, happened to be SEA.

Can you guess who was the 3rd easiest matchup for TE’s?

You can’t even make this shit up – it was DAL.

SF was a lot stingier with the 6th fewest points allowed to TE’s in & #39;19 & you definitely have to give Higbee credit for going 9/104 against them. Even against the weaker opponents, we can’t just write off what he produced...

But it’s important to understand that this wasn’t just a matter of talent shining through – it was a matter of talent + 86-97% snap share + full route usage + ridiculously TE-friendly schedule...

The asking price for Higbee this year would make the gamble worth it – if we could realistically project Higbee keeping his near-100% snap share, full route-tree, and ability to let another TE do the blocking in 2020...

The problem is, there’s literally only 1 piece of evidence to suggest Higbee keeps that near-100% snap share, full route tree, and ability to let another TE do the blocking – Johnny Mundt playing over Everett when Everett returned from injury for the last 2 games of last season.

The main pitch for Higbee is built on the idea that he permanently stole Gerald Everett’s role as the primary receiving TE & that the team would rather rely on Johnny Mundt as a blocker in 2TE sets than to put Everett on the field...

Yet, that argument is so easily dismissed...

Because if Gerald Everett was healthy Weeks 16 & 17 & didn’t play because Higbee had permanently taken his receiving role & Mundt had permanently settled into Higbee’s old blocking role, why hasn’t Everett been traded, like, yesterday?

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If you& #39;re the Rams, wouldn& #39;t you seek compensation??

What justification is there for not trading Everett if you’re plan is to just let him rot behind Johnny Mundt & leave for nothing as a FA at the end of the year?

It’s almost as if they plan to use Everett in 2TE sets, run his 4.62 wheels off the wagon in the last year of his contract, & then let him walk at the end of the year with his replacement Brycen Hopkins already on the team...

LA is planning on using Everett or they’d get compensation from someone else who would want to.

He& #39;s not gonna rot away on the pine while Johnny Mundt blocks & Higbee runs all of his old routes & gets all of his old snaps.

There’s just no logical scenario where that happens...

2TE sets = Higbee & Everett, not Higbee & Mundt

When that happens, Everett is going to take back some of those routes you see on the late-season charts that Higbee soaked up – and he’s going to take back a lot more of them then the 5 targets Mundt compiled over the last 5 games.

We cannot expect Higbee to out-target the TE2 by a ratio of 56-5 if that TE2 is Everett & not Mundt. It’s just not logical.

That = all of that TE production from Higbee over the last 5 weeks being split with Everett going forward (& then probably with Brycen Hopkins in & #39;21+)...

Whether the production split is 70/30 Higbee, 60/40, 50/50, or 60/40 Everett, who really knows?

But as long as Everett is on this team, he’s the TE2, not Johnny Mundt...

& when Higbee & Everett are both on the field in 2TE sets & the play calls for one to block, Higbee is definitely going back to the blocking role – the one they paid him handsomely to occupy.

I mean seriously, if you’re the Rams, who are you going to ask to block?

The guy who’s 6’6”/255 (who you paid to block), or the guy who’s 6’3”/240 & runs a 4.62?

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Have I said 4.62 40 enough times yet?

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Now, it’s certainly possible that Higbee steals work in 1TE sets that would have otherwise gone to Everett before. He likely will & that’ll help him be better than he was in the role we saw him in through 3 1/2 years...

But Everett is too good himself to not steal at least 10-15% of the work in 1TE sets, at the bare minimum – and there will be plenty of 3WR/1TE sets run with LA having invested a 2nd round pick in Van Jefferson as their WR3 (& potentially even Josh Reynolds seeing playing time).

That just doesn’t really leave any way for Higbee to see that 86-97% snap share he saw in the last 5 weeks of 2019.

It is possible that the Rams decide to run more plays with 2TE’s on the field where both TE’s run routes. Higbee seems to have earned that...

However, there are question marks about a Rams offensive line who’s best player is 38 year old Andrew Whitworth…

Will they be able to afford to send both TE’s on pass routes & consistently rely on the RB’s to block?

Higbee is a great blocker, we know that by the fact they paid him for it, but Todd Gurley (who had a 70.6 PFF pass-blocking grade last year) is gone…

He’s replaced by Cam Akers – a rookie, who graded 99th out of 349 FBS qualifiers in pass-blocking according to Rotoworld (good not great), & Darrell Henderson – who was among the worst graded pass-blockers with a 46.1 PFF grade.

Who do you think they’re going to trust with blocking assignments?

Them, or Higbee?

Not only are Akers & Henderson uninspiring pass-blockers, but they are actually decent weapons in the receiving game & there’s a possibly they steal more targets than the 55 combined targets Gurley & Henderson had last year. Malcolm Brown could steal some too. Another unknown...

On top of the possibility of three RB’s stealing routes & targets & the near-certainty of Everett stealing snaps, routes, & targets, this team has two really good WR’s & potentially a third, and that’s not even factoring Brycen Hopkins into the equation…

Even if the Rams do turn into a 2TE offense, how many offenses can you think of with WR’s like Cooper Kupp & Robert Woods that were also able to support 2 TE’s? To the point where one of the TE’s finished in the top-8?

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There’s certainly upside in a potent passing offense, but there’s also a ton of uncertainty surrounding:

- the amount Higbee’s schedule affected his performance last year

- whether he’s going to be forced to revert back to a blocking role & not let that responsibility fall on another TE

- whether he’s going to see a full snap count

- and how much production will be left with Kupp, Woods, Everett, Van Jefferson, & the RB’s getting theirs...

At this point, I won’t even try to persuade anyone against drafting Higbee as a starter. How could I do that after the production he put up? If you wanna gamble on the upside, go for it.

Just know there are major risks here & you do not want to get caught holding the bag at TE.

If you’re going to draft him as a starter, I& #39;d strongly urge you to also invest another pick (or even two) in a possible breakout TE who:

- is a plus-athlete

- doesn’t have as many roadblocks to a full snap count

- & full route tree, and has less overall target competition...

Some guys who fit the bill (who I’d take over Higbee in both redraft & dynasty) are:

Hayden Hurst
Jonnu Smith
Dallas Goedert
& Chris Herndon

If you risk it for the biscuit on Higbee as your starter (just go TE-early instead!), you really ought to add one or even two of these other guys as insurance. All of them offer more clearly checked boxes for:

- athleticism
- route utilization
- & target competition.

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