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ITALY: Herd Imunity 3d 1/4
1) suppose there is one
2) at R0=3 in no actions, Herd immunity threshold is 67%
3) normally u go to 80% (overshooting)
4) assume cross reactivity, luck, whatever so HI is at 40%
In Italy 24mln people
say 22mn assuming seroprevalence is 8% circa
1) suppose there is one
2) at R0=3 in no actions, Herd immunity threshold is 67%
3) normally u go to 80% (overshooting)
4) assume cross reactivity, luck, whatever so HI is at 40%
In Italy 24mln people
say 22mn assuming seroprevalence is 8% circa
2/4
on the 22mn people assume 2.2 mln hospitalizations &
400K ICU
Result
6027 hospitalĂČization a day for 1 year (365d)
1095 ICU a day
in 25 days of uncontroled spread we are fucked
Hospitals overwhelmed
on the 22mn people assume 2.2 mln hospitalizations &
400K ICU
Result
6027 hospitalĂČization a day for 1 year (365d)
1095 ICU a day
in 25 days of uncontroled spread we are fucked
Hospitals overwhelmed
3/4
REVERSE ENGINEERING
let say we manage keeping the curve flat at health resources limit.
dont know how, but we do it
Assumption
Average ospitalisation stay 2,5 weeks then u die or survive
Time to Herd Immunity: (2.2mln:90.0000 hospital beds)*2,5 weeks
61 weeks
REVERSE ENGINEERING
let say we manage keeping the curve flat at health resources limit.
dont know how, but we do it
Assumption
Average ospitalisation stay 2,5 weeks then u die or survive
Time to Herd Immunity: (2.2mln:90.0000 hospital beds)*2,5 weeks
61 weeks
no suppose we are not lucky and we do need 80% of population
Your turn.......
I would'nt go Sweeden , besides ethics
@ThManfredi
@CrossWordsCW
Your turn.......
I would'nt go Sweeden , besides ethics
@ThManfredi
@CrossWordsCW
