1/Today marks 5yrs since #JCPOA agreed between #Iran & world powers.
Back then, many thought deal could pave way for confidence building between West/Tehran.
Instead, JCPOA is now hollowed out.
But framework so far survived #Trump after he vowed to 'dismantle disastrous deal.'

2/ #JCPOA parties getting enough out of arrangement to keep it ticking till US elections:
>E3/Russia/China: unprecedented monitoring over #Iran's nuclear activities-see @JosepBorrellF statement
->Tehran: transatlantic divide; Russia/China political shield https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/82811/jcpoa-statement-eu-high-representative-josep-borrell-his-capacity-coordinator-joint-commission_en

3/I've long argued #JCPOA can outlive #Trump admin's max pressure over 1st term. But coming months may present biggest challenges to deal:
>US attempt to snap-back #UNSC sanctions: Europe, China, Russia reaction critical in shaping response in Tehran
>New wave of US sanctions

4/ #JCPOA holding pattern could last till US elections. In Nov, under either #Trump or #Biden -E3/EU should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington & Tehran to agree an interim deal over #Iran's nuclear activities to stabilise JCPOA.
For more see: https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/reviving_the_revolutionaries_how_trumps_maximum_pressure_is_shifting_irans