...THREAD...

Seen quite a bit of Adam Thielen love on the timeline, with some good points both for and against him. One thing I've noticed that I've disagreed with is volume and efficiency expectations for Thielen in 2020. Agree/Disagree?

1/ I'm out on Cousins and Thielen for a multitude of reasons, but one that I haven't seen talked about...Cousins consistently ranks bottom 10 in aggressiveness (throws into 1-yard or less of separation), hence his high comp %. In 5 games w/o Diggs over the last 3 seasons...

2/ ...Thielen's 16 game pace is 106/1078/6.4 on 163 targets. That's IMMENSE volume but his efficiency goes from a career 9.3 y/tgt down to 6.6 (Yikes). In the past, sans Diggs Cousins has had Treadwell as his next best WR option...but now he has Justin Jefferson. When Defenses...

3/ ... treat Thielen as the #1 receiving threat, I don't expect Cousins to feed him with tight windows/double coverage. Instead, expect Irv Smith and Justin Jefferson to enjoy the lax coverage Thielen has seen with Diggs in town, and Thielen to move more into Diggs' vacant...

4/... decoy role. Keep in mind, Thielen has always dominated market share when healthy, so Diggs' departure doesn't necessarily mean more volume for Thielen. I'm expecting 2020 Justin Jefferson and 2020 Irv Smith to easily eclipse 2019 Irv + 2019 Diggs target totals, leaving...

5/... similar target totals for Thielen but with much worse efficiency. Then factor in the fact that MIN had a 466/476 (49.4%/50.6%) pass/run split in 2019, and Thielen's fantasy prospects in 2020 and beyond are less than attractive...

6/... My 2020 projections for Adam Thielen? Assuming a full 16 games...

25% target share (125 targets on 500 attempts)
65% catch rate --> 81 Rec
7.5 y/t --> 938 yds (11.5 y/rec, a career worst)
TDs...??? Career 7.7% TD rate on receptions --> 6 TDs

81/938/6 season for Thielen!

@MyFantasyLeague