After falling 27% following the halving, Bitcoin's hash rate has just set a *new all-time high* at over 124 exahashes per second.

Once again, no "death spiral" was had. And that's long-term bullish for BTC.

Here's more on why.

The ongoing HR surge comes on the back of 4 trends:

1) an influx of investment by Bitcoin mining firms
2) the arrival of "rainy season" in China
3) the sale of more efficient mining machines from ASIC manufacturers
4) A potential "hash rate war" (h/t @maxkeiser, @realmaxkeiser)

1) Investment by mining firms.

- Core Scientific bought 17k of Bitmain's new SHA-256 ASICs

- Peter Thiel-backed mining startup Layer1 started operations in February. Layer1 wants to control 30% of Bitcoin's hash rate

- SBI and GMO Internet are working with a large mine in Tx

2) It's rainy season in China.

With an estimated ~65% (University of Cambridge) of all Bitcoin hash rate located in China, where hydroelectricity is prevalent, floods = much cheaper electricity rates for miners.

Some reports say during rainy season, it can cost ~$0.01/kWh.

3) ASIC companies are rolling out new devices.

MicroBT launched the Whatsminer M30S++ in April. It is ~35% more efficient than last April's devices.

Bitmain rolled out the Antminer S19 Pro in May. It's ~27% more efficient than December's devices.

(Data: @hashrateindex)

4) Iran, Venezuela, and other countries are starting to heavily regulate mining.

@maxkeiser/ @realmaxkeiser and others think this regulation and focus will start a "global hash rate war," spurring massive investment in the Bitcoin mining space.

This confluence of trends seemingly indicates that Bitcoin's hash rate won't stop climbing, especially if BTC holds current levels or appreciates even higher.

Check the chart: Bitcoin's hash rate has consistently been up and to the right, even during bear markets.

Analysis by @caprioleio has found that a strong Bitcoin mining ecosystem should correspond with higher prices. His "Energy Value" model says that "the value of Bitcoin is a function of its energy input in Joules."

Bitcoin is trading 28% below its EV as the hash rate has surged.

With an R2 of ~80%, as long as the energy consumption of the Bitcoin network remains high/grows, price should follow.

https://medium.com/capriole/bitcoin-value-energy-equivalence-6d00d1baa34a

There's also the Hash Ribbons, also pioneered by @caprioleio.

The Hash Ribbons is an indicator that derives signals from crosses in the short-term and long-term moving averages of the hash rate.

It is likely to print a "buy" today for the 11th time in history.

The Hash Ribbons forming a "buy" is an indicator of macro importance. This analysis by Edwards has found that the indicator has preceded all of Bitcoin's major parabolic rallies.

https://medium.com/capriole/hash-ribbons-bitcoin-bottoms-60da13095836

All this will be culminating in a positive adjustment in the difficulty of Bitcoin blocks. ETA: ~10 hours.

The difficulty adjustment is expected to be a +8/9% move, bringing the value to its highest ever. As @100trillionUSD recently said: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1280928298382565377

There we have it folks: a +9.5% Bitcoin difficulty change to bring the metric to a new all-time high of 17,345,948,872,516.

Honey badger don't care.