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How can a virus with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
1/9
1/9
There are two problems with this question.
1. It neglects the law of large numbers
2. It assumes one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. 2/9
1. It neglects the law of large numbers
2. It assumes one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. 2/9
The U.S. has a population of 328.2 million (give or take). If 1% of the population dies, that’s roughly 3.28 million people dead.
3 million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the # of annual deaths per year all at once. 3/9
3 million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the # of annual deaths per year all at once. 3/9
The second bit it people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. ONLY 1% DIE! Just one percent! One is a small number. No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
4/9
What about the people who survive?
4/9
For ever 1 person who dies, roughly:
- 19 more require Hospitalization.
- 18 will have Permanent Heart Damage for the rest of their lives.
- 10 will have Permanent Lung Damage.
- 3 will have Strokes...
5/9
- 19 more require Hospitalization.
- 18 will have Permanent Heart Damage for the rest of their lives.
- 10 will have Permanent Lung Damage.
- 3 will have Strokes...
5/9
- 2 will have Neurological Damage that leads to Chronic Weakness and Loss of Coordination.
- 2 will have Neurological Damage that Leads to Cognitive Function.
6/9
- 2 will have Neurological Damage that Leads to Cognitive Function.
6/9
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” Becomes:
- 3,282,000 People dead.
- 63,358,000 Hospitalized.
- 59,076,000 People w/ Permanent Lung Damage.
- 32,820,000 People w/ Permanent Heart Damage.
- 9,846,000 People w/ Strokes...
7/9
- 3,282,000 People dead.
- 63,358,000 Hospitalized.
- 59,076,000 People w/ Permanent Lung Damage.
- 32,820,000 People w/ Permanent Heart Damage.
- 9,846,000 People w/ Strokes...
7/9
- 6,564,000 People w/ Muscle Weakness.
- 6,564,000 People w/ Loss of Cognitive Function.
That’s the thing about the folks who keep on going on about, “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” simply don’t get.
8/9
- 6,564,000 People w/ Loss of Cognitive Function.
That’s the thing about the folks who keep on going on about, “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” simply don’t get.
8/9
The choice is not, “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, IT WILL BE DESTROYED ANYWAY! The U.S. economy cannot survive with everyone getting COVID-19.
9/9
9/9
@angie_rasmussen @aetiology @mugecevik and anyone other Epidemiologists, Virologists, Immunologists that see this, please share and help raise awareness!! There is a much bigger picture/issue that needs to be addressed that we as a nation are failing to acknowledge.
CREDIT: Written by Franklin Veaux. Pulled from a Post shared on my Facebook.
CREDIT: Written by @franklinveaux
Original Publishing from Quora along with Citations: https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux
For any of the naysayers that think these numbers are an exaggeration just looks at the various #LongCovid testimonials on Twitter, or the Long COVID Facebook Groups. Here is a website dedicated to those “mild” cases that are suffering for 100+ days! https://www.c19recoveryawareness.com/
