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There was a skirmish between Armenian and Azeri forces near the border in Tovuz. Azerbaijan's MoD said that two of its soldiers have been killed and another 5 were wounded.
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534731&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534731&lang=RU
Unconfirmed photo of the Azerbaijani UAZ-469 destroyed during today’s skirmish between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. 2/
https://t.me/milinfolive/61436
https://t.me/milinfolive/61436
Azerbaijan's MoD released a video reportedly showing an Armenian "strongpoint" struck by Azerbaijani forces. They said they employed mortars, artillery, and tanks last night to strike Armenian positions. 3/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-units-of-the-azerbaijan-army-attacked-the-strong-point-of-the-enemy-video-31453.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-units-of-the-azerbaijan-army-attacked-the-strong-point-of-the-enemy-video-31453.html
Azerbaijan also announced that an Azerbaijani Lieutenant, Rashad Makhmudov, was killed during fighting last night. They said that Armenia used heavy machine guns; grenade launchers; sniper rifles; 60, 82, and 120 mm mortars; and artillery. 4/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534750&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534750&lang=RU
Azerbaijan also reportedly lost a UAV during the fighting, which appears to be an Israeli-built Elbit Systems’ SkyStriker loitering munition. 5/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1515066
https://www.banak.info/2020/07/bacarik-nkar-xocvel-e-adrbejanakan-ats.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1515066
https://www.banak.info/2020/07/bacarik-nkar-xocvel-e-adrbejanakan-ats.html
According to Armenia, the fighting began after an Azerbaijaini UAZ-469 attempted to cross the border, which was destroyed by Armenian forces. Azerbaijani forces then employed artillery fire to try to seize a strongpoint. 6/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534797&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=534797&lang=RU
Purportedly a 122mm artillery round fired from an Azerbaijani D-30 howitzer that landed in Chinari. The Armenian MoD has claimed that Azerbaijan is shelling the town with 82 and 120mm mortars as well as artillery. 7/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_68739
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_68739
Unconfirmed video from an Armenian military blog that purportedly shows the Azerbaijani UAZ-469 jeep before it was destroyed by Armenian forces. 8/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_68590
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_68590
The Azerbaijani MoD released another UAV video showing artillery strikes on Armenian positions. They said the strikes were on a radar station, a vehicle storage depot, and a battalion HQ. 9/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-several-military-facilities-and-military-equipment-were-destroyed-video-31462.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-several-military-facilities-and-military-equipment-were-destroyed-video-31462.html
UAV footage of an Azerbaijani artillery strike on an Armenian defensive position. 10/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-several-military-facilities-and-military-equipment-were-destroyed-video-31462.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-several-military-facilities-and-military-equipment-were-destroyed-video-31462.html
One aspect of the wide-spread adoption of UAVs by various militaries that isn't mentioned enough is the role they play in information operations. We've now seen Turkey employ UAV footage in Idlib and Libya to great effect and Baku appears to be taking a similar approach. 11/
This can also be critical for domestic messaging. If one side releases a number of videos of their artillery and aircraft destroying the other side's equipment, the perception of the conflict by domestic and foreign audiences will be influenced (even if that side lost). 12/
In the case of Idlib, Turkey, by most measures, wasn't the winner. Turkey lost dozens of soldiers and accepted Russian/SAA presence up to the M4 highway. But publishing all of those UAV videos demonstrated impressive military capabilities and allowed Anakra to save face. 13/
This might actually be useful for de-escalation. Baku can publish videos of its military launching punitive strikes against Armenia (to satisfy its domestic audience), which could make it easier to ultimately accept a military reversal, without the domestic blowback. 14/
Azerbaijan released another video showing precision-guided munitions, possibly one of their Israeli-built loitering munitions, striking Armenian targets. 16/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/destroyed-positions-and-reserves-in-the-depths-of-the-enemy-s-defense-video-31468.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/destroyed-positions-and-reserves-in-the-depths-of-the-enemy-s-defense-video-31468.html
The Armenian MoD has also begun releasing videos of its artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets. 17/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_69520
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_69520
And Armenia released UAV footage showing a strike on an Azerbaijani vehicle. 19/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_70143
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_70143
The Armenian MoD released a video purportedly showing them shooting down an Israel-made Elbit Hermes 900 UAV. 20/
Azerbaijan released more UAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian artillery battery command post. 22/
Current status of Russo-Turkish relations: they are fighting against each other in Libya, Russian and Turkish soldiers were wounded in a joint patrol in Syria (where they were fighting each other in March), and Russia's ally Armenia and Turkey's ally Azerbaijan are fighting.
And Turkey has Russia's premier long-range air defense system, which it said was absolutely critical to its national security and risked CAATSA-related sanctions for, that is sitting idle at Murted Airbase (even though it is ready to be used).
More Azerbaijani UAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian "permanent fire position." One thing that is notable, is that most of the munitions employed in these videos are relatively small, and are causing much less damage than a 500lb bomb would. 25/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-039-s-permanent-firing-position-was-destroyed-video-31480.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-039-s-permanent-firing-position-was-destroyed-video-31480.html
Another Azerbaijani UAV video showing a strike on an Armenian "company stronghold." One obvious after action lesson from this conflict is that both sides need to do a better job of concealing their positions from the air. 26/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-another-military-facility-was-destroyed-video-31483.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-another-military-facility-was-destroyed-video-31483.html
More UAV footage from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a building on fire. Still hard to assess how militarily effective these strikes have been. The videos haven't shown Armenia losing many vehicles, artillery pieces, or other critical equipment. 29/
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmenin-doyus-texnikasi-mehv-edilib-video-31475.html
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmenin-doyus-texnikasi-mehv-edilib-video-31475.html
A map of the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan from Kommersant. 33/
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4416814?from=main_6
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4416814?from=main_6
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a strike on an Armenian position. It looks like an Israeli Spike NLOS was used. 37/
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmenin-novbeti-herbi-obyekti-darmadagin-edildi-video-31487.html
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmenin-novbeti-herbi-obyekti-darmadagin-edildi-video-31487.html
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a strike on an Armenian “fire position”. Looks like another Spike NLOS ATGM missile and UAV footage. 39/
https://t.me/warjournal/6937
https://t.me/warjournal/6937
Video of the funeral of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev who were both killed yesterday during the fighting with Armenia. 40/
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/sehid-zabitlerimizle-vida-merasimi-kecirilib-video-31496.html
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/sehid-zabitlerimizle-vida-merasimi-kecirilib-video-31496.html
Video from the Azerbaijani military of what they claim is an Armenian military vehicle on fire. 41/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-military-vehicle-was-destroyed-by-the-accurate-fire-of-our-units-video-31506.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-military-vehicle-was-destroyed-by-the-accurate-fire-of-our-units-video-31506.html
Another video from the Azerbaijani military showing what appears to be a Spike NLOS strike on an Armenian "field control point." Despite Armenia's air defenses, Baku continues to strike Armenian targets successfully, often with stand-off munitions. 42/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-field-control-point-of-the-unit-of-the-armed-forces-of-armenia-was-destroyed-video-31504.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-field-control-point-of-the-unit-of-the-armed-forces-of-armenia-was-destroyed-video-31504.html
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan posted a video on his facebook page stating that the Armenian Air Force's Su-30SM fighters are on combat duty ready to defend Armenia's airspace. 43/
https://www.facebook.com/nikol.pashinyan/posts/2693639460956432
https://www.facebook.com/nikol.pashinyan/posts/2693639460956432
The press secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia, Shushan Stepanyan, said earlier today that the situation along the border remained relatively calm last night and today. Though she said Armenia shot down two Azerbaijani UAVs last night. 44/ https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/8966983
Footage reportedly from an Armenian Army-55M UAV showing Azerbaijani armored vehicles. 45/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_71023
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_71023
Additional UAV images showing Azerbaijani tanks reportedly from an Armenian Army-55M UAV. 46/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_71023
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_71023
Video released by the Armenian MoD purportedly of Azerbaijani D-30 artillery and mortar fire on the towns of Aygepar and Movses. 53/
https://t.me/warjournal/6957
https://t.me/warjournal/6957
Photos reportedly of mortar or D-30 artillery fire on the towns of Aygepar and Movses. 54/
https://t.me/warjournal/6957
https://t.me/warjournal/6957
Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia violated the ceasefire 89 times employing "large-caliber machine guns, sniper rifles, 60, 82 and 120mm mortars and the other artillery pieces to escalate the situation." 55/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/ceasfire-31514.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/ceasfire-31514.html
Video from Azerbaijan’s CBC news agency showing fighting along the border in Tovuz. 58/
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/38652
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/38652
Photos of an Armenian Ministry of Emergency Situations' vehicle that was destroyed in an Azerbaijani UAV strike. 59/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_72710
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_72710
Early this morning, the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan published a video with the caption, "The Armenian units destroyed an enemy tank and artillery and mortar positions that were shelling our settlements and positions." 60/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3055658454470294
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3055658454470294
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan released another video that supposedly showed Azerbaijani soldiers recovering the bodies of 3 members of the Yashma SOF unit. 62/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_72638
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3056686884367451
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_72638
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3056686884367451
Photos from that Armenian UAV video. 63/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3056686884367451
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3056686884367451
Azerbaijani UAV footage that purportedly shows the aftermath of a strike on an Armenian barracks. 64/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-military-barrack-was-destroyed-video-31530.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-military-barrack-was-destroyed-video-31530.html
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing a strike on an Armenian vehicle they claimed was used to deliver reserves to the front lines. As with other videos released by the Azerbaijani MoD, the question is how much military value these strikes have. 68/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-vehicle-was-destroyed-by-the-accurate-fire-video-31533.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-s-vehicle-was-destroyed-by-the-accurate-fire-video-31533.html
Photo reportedly of an Azerbaijani Elbit SkyStriker loitering munition that was supposedly downed by Armenian EW systems. 73/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257413%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257413%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
NKR forces reportedly shot down an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Orbiter 3 UAV this morning. 74/
https://t.me/warjournal/7007
https://t.me/warjournal/7007
The Armenian MoD's press secretary published photos that purportedly show Azerbaijan removing damaged tanks and armored vehicles from the front lines. 76/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3062454093790730
https://www.banak.info/2020/07/Bacarik-lusankarner-3tank-1hrshej-meqena-1_18.html
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3062454093790730
https://www.banak.info/2020/07/Bacarik-lusankarner-3tank-1hrshej-meqena-1_18.html
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, claims that the vehicles were damaged by "special combat UAVs of Armenian production". 78/ https://twitter.com/ShushanStepany2/status/1284549170892877831
The spokeswoman for Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Anna A. Naghdalyan, said that Armenia isn't happy with Israel's arms sales to Azerbaijan and intends to raise the issue with Israel. 79/ https://www.interfax.ru/world/717999
The head of Armenia's Davaro UAV company, David Galoyan, said that the Israeli-made UAVs that crashed in Armenian territory have been transferred to their UAV companies to study them. 81/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257753%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257753%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
RT's head, Margarita Simonyan, recently wrote a very critical post about Armenia criticizing it for not recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and said the conflict with Baku is an internal affair. Then all of the CSTO's social media pages shared it. (h/t @ArtyomTonoyan) 83/
Armenia is a CSTO member and an ally of Russia's, while Azerbaijan is not. While the CSTO can say that fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't violate its Article 4, this is more difficult to argue in this case since the fighting is along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. 84/
The Armenian MoD showed off some of the Azerbaijani UAVs and loitering munitions that crashed or were downed during the conflict including the Israeli-made ThunderB, Orbiter 3, and Skystriker. 85/
https://t.me/SputnikArmenia/6092
https://t.me/SputnikArmenia/6092
The Armenian MoD showed off some of the Azerbaijani UAVs and loitering munitions that crashed or were downed during the conflict including the Israeli-made ThunderB, Orbiter 3, and Skystriker. 86/
https://t.me/warjournal/7059
https://t.me/warjournal/7059
More Azerbaijani UAV/loitering munition wreckage displayed by the Armenian MoD. 87/
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD, including Thunder-B, Orbiter 2 and 3, Skystriker, and Harop. They claim the large UAV is a Hermes 180 but it looks like a Hermes 200. 88/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD, including Thunder-B, Orbiter 2 and 3, Skystriker, and Harop. They claim the large UAV is a Hermes 180 but it looks like a Hermes 200. 89/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD. 90/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_273826713
As others have pointed out, many of these UAVs and loitering munitions were likely not downed during the recent fighting. 92/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that they downed an Armenian X-55 UAV today (one of three they said they shot down over the past two days) in the Tovuz region. 94/
https://t.me/milinfolive/61633
https://t.me/milinfolive/61633
Photos of the Armenian X-55 UAV that the Azerbaijani MoD claims they shot down today. 95/
https://mod.gov.az/ru/news/unichtozhen-ocherednoj-takticheskij-bpla-armenii-31583.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1523239
https://mod.gov.az/ru/news/unichtozhen-ocherednoj-takticheskij-bpla-armenii-31583.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1523239
An Armenian military blog suggests that some of the wreckage displayed by the Armenian MoD shows a Spike NLOS missile. A few of the videos released by the Azerbaijani MoD appeared to show Spike NLOS missiles used to strike Armenian targets. 96/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257940%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=photo-164246427_457257940%2Falbum-164246427_00%2Frev
Video of the UAVs. Armenia said they shot down or downed with EW systems 13 Azerbaijani UAVs. 97/
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/38907
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/38907
Just after Russia and Armenia held a joint counter-UAV exercise, Turkey and Azerbaijan are now holding a joint training exercise. 100/ https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1288218597723119616
Armenia announced a sudden combat readiness check of its forces today in response to the joint training exercise between Turkey and Azerbaijan. 102/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=535662&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=535662&lang=RU
Video of Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters arriving in Azerbaijan to participate in the "TurAz Qartalı-2020” Joint Exercise. 103/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/turkish-air-force-039-s-f-16-fighters-participating-in-the-exercises-turaz-qartali-2020-arrived-in-azerbaijan-31670.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/turkish-air-force-039-s-f-16-fighters-participating-in-the-exercises-turaz-qartali-2020-arrived-in-azerbaijan-31670.html
Another video from the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani training exercise. 104/
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/39296
https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/39296
Among the Armenian military equipment involved in today's combat readiness inspection are Smerch MLRS and Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile systems. 105/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3098075943561878
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3098075943561878
Video purportedly of an Armenian-made loitering munition in action. 106/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_77780
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_77780
Another video from the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani TurAz exercise with Turkish T129 and Azerbaijani Mi-35M and Mi-17 helicopters. 107/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/combat-helicopters-were-involved-in-the-turaz-qartali-2020-exercises-video-31736.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/combat-helicopters-were-involved-in-the-turaz-qartali-2020-exercises-video-31736.html
Azerbaijan's Minval claims that Russia sent 7 flights of Il-76 aircraft to Armenia during last month's fighting to deliver 280 tons of military equipment, including Krasukha EW systems, Kvant 1L222 Avtobaza ELINT systems, and Hebo-M radars. 109/
https://minval.az/news/124018159
https://minval.az/news/124018159
A write-up of the complaints from Azerbaijan regarding Russia's reported arms deliveries to Armenia last month. 111/ https://eurasianet.org/aliyev-airs-grievances-to-putin-over-arms-shipments-to-armenia
Armenia showed off some of the new UAVs it is developing. 112/
https://t.me/military_arm/151
https://t.me/military_arm/151
Video of the Armenian Drakon (Dragon) loitering munition undergoing tests. The Drakon has a reported max range of 100km and a payload of 10-15 kg. 114/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_79582
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_79582
Armenia's MFA claims that Armenia has shot down two Azerbaijani helicopters and 3 UAVs. 117/ https://twitter.com/naghdalyan/status/1310080620211601408
Armenian MFA statement: "Early this morning, the Azerbaijani side launched missile attacks along the entire line of contact targeting also the peaceful settlements, including the capital Stepanakert." 119/ https://www.mfa.am/en/interviews-articles-and-comments/2020/09/27/mfa_st_nk/10462
The Azerbaijani MoD confirmed the loss of one helicopter (they say the crew survived), and claimed they destroyed 12 Osa air defense systems, adding that they "decided to launch a counter-offensive operation of our troops along the entire front" 120/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/azerbaijan-army-s-troops-launched-a-counter-offensive-operation-along-the-entire-front-32318.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/azerbaijan-army-s-troops-launched-a-counter-offensive-operation-along-the-entire-front-32318.html
Notably, the US Embassy in Azerbaijan released a warning to US citizens earlier this week due to heightened tensions. 121/ https://twitter.com/raufnmammadov/status/1309549301669023744
The Azerbaijani MoD denies Armenia's claims that they lost 3 tanks, 2 helicopters, and 3 UAVs, but they already confirmed that one of their helicopters was shot down. 126/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/ministry-of-defense-denies-32320.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/ministry-of-defense-denies-32320.html
Armenia posted a video showing two Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72M1) getting hit by a munition. 127/
Video of Armenian military and Artsakh T-72 tanks and towed artillery in Stepanakert. 128/
https://t.me/military_arm/485
https://t.me/military_arm/485
Armenia released another video showing two armored vehicles on fire. The 1st looks like an engineering vehicle driving past BMP-2 on fire. The 2nd look's like a tank, and it is clear its ammunition was struck, which led to the fire. 131/
The Azerbaijani MoD says its "counter-offensive operation continues successfully" adding that they are striking Armenian command posts, maneuver forces, military equipment, and facilities with artillery and aviation assets. No footage released yet. 132/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-azerbaijan-army-s-counter-offensive-operation-continues-successfully-32330.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-azerbaijan-army-s-counter-offensive-operation-continues-successfully-32330.html
It looks like the first vehicle on fire is an IMR-2 engineering vehicle and the second is a T-72 tank with a pair of BMP-3s. 133/
Video from the Armenian MoD showing two more Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72) being struck by munitions, presumably artillery. Poor dispersion by the Azerbaijani force here. 135/
Video of Turkish journalists near the fighting. 136/ https://twitter.com/anadoluajansi/status/1310133317459681281
A couple of initial points. First, I am skeptical of the claims made from both sides of what they destroyed and how the fighting is going, but it is clear this is a major escalation. In addition, the fighting right now has more of a Russian-Turkish element than normal. 138/
Second, a key lesson from the fighting in July is that information operations are key. So far, Armenia has released a number of videos showing Azerbaijani vehicles being destroyed (adding credibility to their claims), while Azerbaijan has not. 139/
That doesn't mean Baku is lying about all of their claims, but by being slower to release this footage, they are ceding the narrative of how the conflict is going to Armenia. I'm sure Azerbaijan will post UAV footage, but publishing it quickly is important. 140/
Longer video from an Armenian Telegram channel of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani tanks and IFVs. You can see a large number of BMP-2 situated in a line. 142/
https://t.me/military_arm/498
https://t.me/military_arm/498
This is not how you want your forces situated with an artillery or aviation threat. 144/
Azerbaijan's MoD claimed that it has "liberated" several villages. 148/ https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1310159088937041921
TASS reports that the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, and the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had a phone call today to discuss the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 149/ https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9561937
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 152/ https://twitter.com/ShStepanyan/status/1310174440391573505
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman also denies that Azerbaijan has taken back 6 villages. 153/ https://twitter.com/ShStepanyan/status/1310175900554665985
The Azerbaijani MoD has begun releasing UAV footage of their strikes on Armenian targets. This footage, which looks quite similar to that of a Turkish TB2 UCAV, shows munitions destroying Armenian vehicles in cover. 154/
They look like Osa air defense systems. Azerbaijan previously claimed that they destroyed 12 Armenian Osa AD systems today. It looks like 3 of them were damaged or destroyed here, possibly by MAM-L munitions. 155/
Earlier today, there was an unknown aircraft from Turkey flying along the border with Armenia, which later crossed into Armenia. Was this a Turkish TB2 UCAV that flew from Turkey to conduct these strikes or were these operated by Azerbaijan? 156/ https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1310162211583807494
There are obviously a ton of very important implications if this was a Turkish TB2 operated by Turkey, which would be a very significant escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Armenia is also a CSTO ally of Russia, and the collective security component should apply.157/
As others have noted, Azerbaijan and Turkey announced that Baku would purchase 6 TB2 UCAVs in June, but I haven't seen confirmation that the deal was completed and the TB2 arrived in Azerbaijan. 158/ https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2020/06/25/azerbaijan-to-buy-armed-drones-from-turkey/
From Armenia's official twitter account. 159/ https://twitter.com/armenia/status/1310165919344320513
The Clash Report Telegram channel that published many of the videos of Turkish TB2 UCAV strikes in Syria and Libya (and is clearly close to Turkish authorities) also says these were TB2 UCAV strikes in this video. 160/
https://t.me/ClashReport/644
https://t.me/ClashReport/644
Another thing to keep an eye on. 164/ https://twitter.com/CourtenaySargon/status/1310203350936432640
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Azerbaijan has been employing its largest caliber MLRS systems, including the Smerch, T-300 Kasirga, and the Belarusian Polonez, which has a max range of 200km. 165/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3277223835647087
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3277223835647087
During previous flare ups, including July, both sides chose to not use their longest range systems. If this is true, the escalation risks are even greater as is the risk that each side begins to strike military targets or cities deep in Armenian or Azerbaijani territory. 166/
*Azerbaijan's variant of the Polonez has a 300km range. After the fighting in 2016, Russia supplied Iskander-M ballistic missile systems to Armenia, reportedly straight from the Russian military (i.e. not MTCR compliant, though that may have changed). 167/ https://iz.ru/1036842/anton-lavrov-roman-kretcul/polonez-dlia-iskandera-smozhet-li-azerbaidzhan-vypolnit-svoi-ugrozy-armenii
Even the MTCR-compliant export variant of the Iskander has a range of 280km, which means Armenia could strike targets across most of Azerbaijan from Armenian territory (or Baku if they launch from Nagorno-Karabakh). Armenia also received 4 Su-30SM fighters last December. 168/
In short, both sides have longer-range aircraft and artillery/MLRS systems that can strike each other's capitals, a capability that they effectively lacked before 2016. During the fighting in July, both sides chose to not use these systems, but that seems to have changed. 169/
Azerbaijan released a second video that also appears to be from a TB2 UCAV, showing a strike on another vehicle in cover (look's like an Osa with camouflage netting), and damaged armored vehicles, possibly BMP-2 or 2S1 Gvozdika. 170/
Screenshots from that TB2 UCAV footage. The first shows what looks like an Osa AD system with a tarp/camo netting. The others show an armored column of at least 8 vehicles. The lead vic is smoking and the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) appears to be damaged. 171/
Azerbaijan claimed that that the vehicles in that armored column were abandoned by Armenian forces as they retreated. Unclear what damaged those vehicles. The TB2 could have been supporting MLRS or artillery in that case. 172/
Video taken from Stepanakert that reportedly shows an Azerbaijani UAV being shot down. 173/
https://t.me/military_arm/506
https://t.me/military_arm/506
The Armenian MoD released another video showing Azerbaijani BTRs (the front might be a BTR-82A) being struck by a munition, and footage of an Azerbaijani column with a number of damaged or destroyed trucks and a BMP-3 and IMR-3. 175/
BMP-3 attempting to tow another BMP-3 with a burning truck in the foreground, and an IMR-3 vehicle behind a truck and next to some other vehicle with another BMP-3 in the third frame. 176/
I guess this Kavkaz 2020 photo op wasn't good enough. 177/
If you can speak Russian, @CentreAST wrote a good book in 2018 about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with background on the military and security issues (including arms imports from Russia), which is free to download.
http://cast.ru/books/v-ozhidanii-buri-yuzhnyy-kavkaz.html
http://cast.ru/books/v-ozhidanii-buri-yuzhnyy-kavkaz.html
Another TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan showing air or artillery strikes on Armenian positions. It appears that most if not all of the targets in this video were not struck by the TB2, which is instead providing targeting support. 180/
Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be 3 Strela-10 air defense systems in cover being struck, likely from MAM-L TB2 munitions. 181/
Turkey admitted that during fighting in Idlib in Feb-March they employed F-16 fighters to shoot down Syrian aircraft and likely to bomb targets while in Turkish airspace. They also can launch SOM-J JSF stand-off missiles with a 150 + nm range. 182/ https://twitter.com/atanessi/status/1310318369669820419
I don't know if that claim is true, but it is possible. In particular, Turkey used F-16 with long-range glide bombs or stand-off munitions to strike longer-range air defense systems in Idlib in March while using TB2 to target shorter-range systems. 183/
Another claim by the spokeswoman of the Armenian MoD about Azerbaijani losses. 184/
Video from Nagorno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army. It is quite graphic, so I won't post the entire thing but it starts with wreckage supposedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter that was shot down today. 185/
The video shows 8 bodies from the Azerbaijani military as well as three BMP-2, one of which was a catastrophic kill while the other two appear to be damaged/mobility kills. 186/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_85468
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?w=wall-164246427_85468
Look's like a TM-62P2 anti-tank mine and a pair of RPG-7. 187/
Video of Armenian reservists being called up and sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. 188/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims they destroyed 22 tanks and armored vehicles, 15 Osa air defense systems, 18 UAVs, 8 artillery pieces, 3 ammo depots, and killed or wounded 550 servicemen. 189/
https://t.me/ClashReport/654
https://t.me/ClashReport/654
A bad sign. 191/ https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1310340638668455936
Video purportedly from Nagarno-Karabakh of a rocket fired from a 9K58 Smerch MLRS (possibly a 9M55K) that didn’t detonate. 195/
https://t.me/reartsakh/3540
https://t.me/reartsakh/3540
Azerbaijan released another TB2 video showing strikes, presumably from MAM-L munitions, on three systems in cover. The first and third appear to be Osa (Osa-AK/AKM), but I'm not sure about the second target with a tarp on top (Tor-M2KM?). 197/
1st is an Osa, 2nd I believe is also an Osa, and 3rd @pfc_joker points out appears to be an Osa 9T217 transporter-loader vehicle. 198/
Another video with TB2 UCAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian T-72 tank. 199/
Nagarno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army published a video of some of the Azerbaijani casualties, presumably from the earlier video with 3 BMP-2. I won't post the video, but It shows at least 9 bodies and some of their identification documents. 200/
Nagorno-Karabakh officials claimed earlier today that their forces destroyed 33 Azerbaijani tanks, 4 helicopters, 27 UAVs, and 4 armored vehicles. I would take this with some skepticism. 202/
Another photo purportedly from Nagorno-Karabakh of a Smerch MLRS rocket launched by Azerbaijani forces. 203/
https://t.me/milinfolive/63249
https://t.me/milinfolive/63249
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that Azerbaijan used its TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems early this morning. 204/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279191985450272
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279191985450272
An ominous statement from the Azerbaijani MoD. 205/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-enemy-is-warned-for-the-last-time-32359.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/the-enemy-is-warned-for-the-last-time-32359.html
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video purportedly showing several Armenian soldiers (I counted 8) who were killed in the fighting. They claim that the high ground near Talysh was cleared of Armenian/NK forces, who they say suffered heavy casualties. 206/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/advantageous-high-grounds-around-talysh-village-were-cleared-of-the-enemy-video-32370.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/advantageous-high-grounds-around-talysh-village-were-cleared-of-the-enemy-video-32370.html
Take this with a grain of salt. Semyon Pegov’s WarGonzo Telegram channel is claiming that Turkish SOF is preparing to be sent to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan’s initial offensive failed to achieve its goals. 207/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3481
https://t.me/wargonzo/3481
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claims that "several dozen" enemy bodies are behind Armenian lines after their counterattack. 208/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279297028773101
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279297028773101
Another video released by the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be AGS-30 grenade launchers, Podnos 82mm mortars, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and towed artillery pieces firing on Armenian positions. 209/
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/bolmelerimiz-torpaqlarimizin-azad-edilmesi-ugrunda-doyus-emeliyyati-kecirir-video-32372.html
https://mod.gov.az/az/news/bolmelerimiz-torpaqlarimizin-azad-edilmesi-ugrunda-doyus-emeliyyati-kecirir-video-32372.html
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan said that Azerbaijan employed TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems this morning but said they didn't suffer any losses from its salvo. She also posted this video, but I'm not sure what the context is. 211/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279482748754529
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3279482748754529
Azerbaijani Major General Mayis Barkhudarov: "We will fight to destroy the enemy completely." He also said that there are fierce battles currently going on. 212/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/major-general-mayis-barkhudarov-we-will-fight-to-destroy-the-enemy-completely-32376.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/major-general-mayis-barkhudarov-we-will-fight-to-destroy-the-enemy-completely-32376.html
Nagorno-Karabakh acknowledged the loss of another 15 soldiers, bringing its total losses to 31 KIA so far. 213/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=538558&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=538558&lang=RU
Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that ~200 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers have been wounded thus far. 214/
https://ria.ru/20200928/karabakh-1577868635.html https://www.reuters.com/article/idL8N2GP1AE
https://ria.ru/20200928/karabakh-1577868635.html https://www.reuters.com/article/idL8N2GP1AE
Two more Armenian T-72 tanks struck by TB2 UCAVs. One of the advantages of TB2 UCAVs with MAM-L munitions compared to artillery and other forms of fire support is that they can easily destroy armor in cover. 217/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that their artillery, in this case, 2S7 Pion 203 mm heavy artillery pieces, engaged Armenian artillery from its 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment. They said Armenian artillery was striking Azerbaijani positions near Aghdara. 218/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-artillery-units-in-the-aghdara-direction-were-hit-video-32392.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-artillery-units-in-the-aghdara-direction-were-hit-video-32392.html
The use of 2S7 Pion, as well as Smerch, TOS-1A, and reportedly Polonez and Kasirga MLRS, which Azerbaijan typically has not employed during fighting with Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh forces is another indication of how different the current fighting is. 219/
Azerbaijan has an advantage in heavy and long-range artillery and MLRS, in addition to UAVs, UCAVs, and loitering munitions. Baku employed its Israeli-made loitering munitions and ATGMs heavily in July, but wasn't able to translate that into battlefield gains. 220/
Despite greater defense spending and high-tech arms imports, Azerbaijan had limited success in the 2016 fighting but didn't take back much if any terrain in July while sustaining casualties. This time Baku is determined to achieve tangible successes to avoid further protests.221/
This makes this iteration of the fighting more dangerous and more likely to escalate. If Baku doesn't achieve tangible successes (i.e. retake territory), it risks more public anger as happened in July, and Armenia is unlikely to agree to a cease fire if it loses territory. 222/
Another difference from July is that Azerbaijani published videos of strikes on targets that weren't of particularly high military value, but not this time. In this video you can see an Armenian D-30 howitzer's truck, T-72, and Osa AD system hit. 223/
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/several-more-enemy-military-vehicles-were-destroyed-video-32395.html
https://mod.gov.az/en/news/several-more-enemy-military-vehicles-were-destroyed-video-32395.html
Ural truck with 122mm ammunition for the D-30 howitzer, Osa AD system (probably an Osa-AKM), and T-72 tank. Azerbaijan has been specifically targeting front-line Armenian air defenses with TB2 (e.g. Osa and Strela-10), which is typical in the beginning of a conflict. 224/
Semyon Pegov and others are claiming that Russian private military contractors including Donbas veterans are ready to go to Nagorno-Karabakh to fight on behalf of Armenia whenever they receive the signal. 225/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3491
https://t.me/wargonzo/3491
If Armenia struggles to overcome Azerbaijan's greater military hardware and fire support assets, this might be a way for Russia to support Armenia without employing direct military force (which it doesn't want to do). 226/
Armenia released a video showing an ATGM strike on a truck (possibly artillery or MLRS), and artillery strikes near two Azerbaijani tanks and an artillery piece. 229/
Screenshots of the ATGM and artillery strikes. On second thought, it look's as though the last target is also a tank and not an artillery piece. 230/
Another video released by Armenia that shows strikes on an Azerbaijani armor column with tanks and IFVs, as well as a strike on a building that was presumably being used by Azerbaijani forces. 233/
Screenshots from the video. 234/
Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews in action. 235/
Another video, presumably of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and vehicles, released by the Artsakh Defence Army. 236/
Alexander Kots claims this is a video of an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. Harops were used successfully during the 2016 fighting. 237/
https://t.me/sashakots/16995
https://t.me/sashakots/16995
Kots also posted a video of what appears to be a downed aircraft. This was reportedly an An-2 aircraft. 238/
https://t.me/sashakots/16992
https://t.me/sashakots/16992
Another video purportedly of an Azerbaijani loitering munition over Martakert. 239/
Pretty obvious this is related to the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 240/ https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1310661019405086720
Both Reuters and the Guardian are reporting that Syrians from Idlib are being flown by Turkey (or planning to) to fight for Azerbaijan. There have been a number of reports on social media and elsewhere saying the same thing. 241/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/syrian-rebel-fighters-prepare-to-deploy-to-azerbaijan-in-sign-of-turkeys-ambition https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-turkey-syria-int-idUSKBN26J258?taid=5f720d55d9f82500010f33e8
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/syrian-rebel-fighters-prepare-to-deploy-to-azerbaijan-in-sign-of-turkeys-ambition https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-turkey-syria-int-idUSKBN26J258?taid=5f720d55d9f82500010f33e8
"Armenia’s ambassador to Moscow said on Monday that Turkey had sent around 4,000 fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan and that they were fighting there". Reuters reports that the fighters would get paid $1,500 a month. 242/ https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-turkey-syria-int-idUSKBN26J258?taid=5f720d55d9f82500010f33e8
Video reportedly of Armenians in Georgia trying to return to Armenia to fight but being blocked by Georgian border guards. 243/
https://t.me/reartsakh/3614
https://t.me/reartsakh/3614
Another photo of a Smerch MLRS rocket reportedly launched from Azerbaijani forces. Of course, this could be a photo of one of the same rockets photographed before. 244/
https://t.me/reartsakh/3589
https://t.me/reartsakh/3589
The Armenian Ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan said, "We believe that should the need arise, we will request Russia [for additional military assistance]," but "As of today, we don’t think that we need additional troops or other forces," 246/ https://tass.com/world/1205929
Toganyan also said that Armenia will use its Iskander-M ballistic missile systems if Turkey employs F-16 fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, but said that Armenian air defenses are currently coping with the threat from UAVs. 247/ https://ria.ru/20200928/iskandery-1577909939.html
The Caliber az site posted a video showing what appears to be an Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh observation post with two Ural-4320 trucks that was overrun. The video shows ~10 bodies. 248/
The Arsakh Defense Army announced that another 26 soldiers were killed today. 250/
https://t.me/reartsakh/3620
https://t.me/reartsakh/3620
That brings the two-day death total for the Artsakh Defense Army to 84. 252/ https://www.interfax.ru/world/729029
Video purportedly of the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV or loitering munition. 253/
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=video-164246427_456241557%2Fae4d03c67ecc936839%2Fpl_wall_-164246427
https://vk.com/armenia_military_portal?z=video-164246427_456241557%2Fae4d03c67ecc936839%2Fpl_wall_-164246427
Regarding the presumed downed An-2 aircraft. 255/ https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1310671378903859200
Another video from the Armenian MoD of what appear to be artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions, including vehicles on fire. There have been a number of cases of Azerbaijani tanks or armored vehicles catching on fire after their ammunition was hit.257/
The Times is also reporting that Turkey is sending Syrians to Azerbaijan to fight against Armenian forces. 258/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorno-karabakh-clashes-turkey-sends-syrian-mercenaries-into-combat-against-armenians-wz6cqjc57
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorno-karabakh-clashes-turkey-sends-syrian-mercenaries-into-combat-against-armenians-wz6cqjc57
It isn't surprising that Armenia would hold back its newest and most sophisticated air defense systems from the front lines, to protect critical defense sites and cities. But in Syria, Tor-M2 was Russia's most effective air defense system against COTS UAVs. 260/
Interestingly, Azerbaijan has mostly published videos from TB2 UCAVs thus far, but many of the videos they released from the July fighting was from Spike NLOS ATGM missiles. 261/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1283419011456421888
Deleted my previous tweet because there was a duplicate. From the Azerbaijani MoD's videos released thus far, they show 6 Osa (likely Osa-AKM) 9A33-series TELARs and 1 9T217 Transporter/Transloader struck by munitions (presumably, MAM-L from TB2 UCAVs). 263/
Photos of that 1 Osa 9T217 Transporter/Transloader and 3 Strela-10 air defense systems that were also struck in the Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV footage. 264/
Azerbaijan released a photo of artillery fire over the night. Look's like 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery. 265/
What appears to be an Azerbaijani 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery piece firing on Armenian targets. 266/
Azerbaijan released another TB2 UCAV video, presumably taken from last night, of a strike on Armenian tanks. Keep in mind that MAM-L need an almost direct hit for a mobility kill let alone a K-kill. Regardless, Armenian forces need more dispersion. 272/
Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition, possibly an Israeli-made Harop, striking Armenian soldiers in a trench line. 273/
https://t.me/milinfolive/63279
https://t.me/milinfolive/63279
Video of Azerbaijani artillery and MLRS engaging Armenian targets. 274/
Armenians soldiers engaging Azerbaijani soldiers on a hill top with small arms fire. 275/
Nagorno-Karabakh air defense forces (looks like it is an Osa-AKM) apparently shooting down an Azerbaijani Orbiter-1K loitering munition. 276/
https://t.me/military_arm/585
https://t.me/military_arm/585
Reportedly the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV, possibly a Hermes-450. 277/
https://t.me/military_arm/584
https://t.me/military_arm/584
Video of Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS during on Armenian targets. It appears they quickly change positions after launching their salvo (they have a short max range). 278/
https://t.me/military_arm/593
https://t.me/military_arm/593
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan shared this video saying that Armenian Igla MANPADS shot down 2 helicopters, but the video appears to show the tail of one or two An-2 aircraft (possibly the same one that was shot down earlier). 279/
I'll wait for confirmation that this was from a Turkish F-16. It could have been from an Azerbaijani Air Force MiG-29, but I would note that Turkish F-16s shot down Syrian Air Force Su-24 and L-39 aircraft in March while remaining in Turkish airspace. 280/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54345622
Another video from the Armenian MoD that shows strikes on several Azerbaijani armored vehicles as well as infantry. Again, the pronounced fires are from the vehicles' ammunition storage getting struck by a munition. 281/
Semyon Pegov showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers in action. 282/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3514
https://t.me/wargonzo/3514
Another video of Armenian D-30 howitzers from Semyon Pegov. 283/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3516
https://t.me/wargonzo/3516
Armenian mortar fire. 284/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3507
https://t.me/wargonzo/3507
Video from earlier today reportedly of some kind of aircraft, possibly a UAV, getting shot down northeast of Stepanakert. 285/
https://t.me/wargonzo/3499
https://t.me/wargonzo/3499
A bus in Vardenis was destroyed earlier today. Reportedly, the driver was the only person inside at the time and survived. This is fairly significant as Vardenis is in Armenia proper, and the M-11 is the main highway from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. 286/
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3389380231097561
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3389380231097561
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan
claimed that air forces (presumably, she's talking about TB2 UCAVs) were employed in the strike on Vardenis. Obviously, this was an attempt to prevent reinforcements from arriving from Armenia. 287/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3282629311773206
claimed that air forces (presumably, she's talking about TB2 UCAVs) were employed in the strike on Vardenis. Obviously, this was an attempt to prevent reinforcements from arriving from Armenia. 287/
https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3282629311773206
The Armenian MoD made a statement that the Turkish F-16 that allegedly downed the Armenian Su-25 took off from the Ganja Airport, and that Azerbaijani Su-25 and TB2 took off from the Dollyar Air Base to strike Vardenis, Mets, Masrik, and Sotk. 288/
https://mil.am/ru/news/8440
https://mil.am/ru/news/8440
Video posted by Artsrun Hovhannisyan of that damaged bus in Vardenis. As a reminder, Azerbaijan destroyed a bus with Armenian reinforcements during they fighting in 2016 with an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. 289/
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/videos/3389090517793199
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/videos/3389090517793199
Photos from the air strike on that bus in Vardenis. 290/
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3389380231097561
https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3389380231097561
Video of an Azerbaijani aircraft being struck by a surface-to-air missile. Nagorno-Karabakh forces claim it was a helicopter but it looks more like an An-2 or other aircraft. 291/
https://t.me/military_arm/580
https://t.me/military_arm/580
Another video posted by Armenian forces that appears to show another Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 292/
https://t.me/military_arm/579
https://t.me/military_arm/579
Nagorno-Karabakh forces released a compilation video of various strikes on Azerbaijani forces, much of which has been published before. 293/
The end of the video shows some kind of aircraft being shot down. 294/
And a better look, from two different directions, of that Azerbaijani IMR-2 that was destroyed during the start of the fighting. Clearly hit by a ground-launched direct fire munition. 295/
Azerbaijan has a significant advantage in quantity and quality of fire support, but the question is whether they are employing fires effectively. Are they just shooting at Armenian targets, or are they using fires to support maneuver? I'm guessing it is mostly the former. 296/
Obviously, Armenian/NK forces have fortified and defensible positions, but Azerbaijan has a variety of UAV/UCAVs, as well as heavy artillery/MLRS, like the 2S7, Smerch, and TOS-1A, and well-equipped ground forces. Employed correctly, they should be able to retake territory. 297/
But a # of the videos have indicated Azerbaijan isn't always employing its forces effectively. In 2016 much of Azerbaijan's successes involved its elite forces, which sustained heavy casualties, but the gap between its elite and conventional forces is likely large. 298/
Because of the gap between its elite and conventional forces, a limiting factor in Azerbaijan's offensive is whether it can limit casualties among its elite units, because its conventional forces will likely struggle to seize well-defended Armenian positions. 301/
I wouldn't put much faith in these numbers. Armenian officials appear to have misidentified downed helicopters as UAVs or AN-2 on a few occasions already. The UAV and helicopter figure is almost certainly highly exaggerated. 303/ https://twitter.com/ArmenianUnified/status/1311012477786894336
Video of a press conference today with the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He gave the same figures for Azerbaijani losses though the 137 figure is for tanks and other armored vehicles, and he said Azerbaijan suffered 1,900 total WIA and 790 KIA. 306/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
He said the attack on the Vardenis region was conducted by Air Force assets, in particular UCAVs, and targeted civilian infrastructure as well as a bus. He reiterated the claim that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 today, killing its pilot. 307/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
He also asked people to not call their friends in the military because they can then be targeted by Azerbaijan. 308/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=01GIknZJlQg
Nagorno-Karabakh BM-21 Grad MLRS. 309/
Between this and attacks on the bus along the M-11 highway, it seems Azerbaijan is focusing air strikes on interdicting reinforcements from Armenia. One problem with TB2 is that the MAM-L is a small munition and not great at making a road impassable. 310/ https://twitter.com/517design/status/1310941876275609602
I wouldn't be surprised if some of Armenia's top air defense assets and maybe its Su-30SM fighters are dedicated to protecting this vital supply line between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It would also be a possible target for Turkish F-16s if they are indeed taking part. 311/
Pretty intense video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces under fire from Azerbaijani artillery and possibly air strikes. You can also hear the humming of UAVs, possibly loitering munitions. 312/
Nagorno-Karabakh forces employing a 9K111 Fagot ATGM against Azerbaijani forces. 313/
Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers shooting at UAVs, likely loitering munitions, with their small arms. You can hear the UAVs' humming sound throughout the video. 314/
The first video released by Azerbaijan showing loitering munitions in use. In the video you can see 4 Armenian T-72 tanks and one 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer hit from overhead (many of which were in cover). (h/t @Rebel44CZ) 315/
The start of that video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces that presumably shows Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front. You can see at least one destroyed tank on the drive up. 316/
Screenshots showing a destroyed Armenian tank and Azerbaijani soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh forces' fighting positions. 317/
