This will take me probably a while to do but it's probably as good a time as any to do this thread. So here it is.

Lucasfilm and Star Wars: Past, present, and future and why Ben Solo must return for it's survival

A THREAD

If I repeat anything in this thread I apologize in advance. Some of what I say has probably been mentioned before. I also am going to avoid any money terms and break down to make sure its understandable and in normal terms.

This thread will be broken into three parts.

Before I start I also want to mention that I am a lifelong SW fan. I am NOT one of those people on YouTube that says all the time that the mouse is in hot water. I don't do fake conspiracies. Everything I say is off of research and fact and is not made up.

This thread is also not well thought out theories or anything like that. This is purely from a financial standpoint on why Ben Solo must return. I love good theories but Ben Solo return will hinge on the finance area first and foremost.

Part 1- Star Wars, the Past

Before diving in to each movie and their success, let's first go back to 2012 when Lucasfilm was bought for 4 billion dollars and most people were surprised and happy.

Disney prior to 2012 had built a reputation already as a corporation built of $$$

They had already acquired Pixar for around 7 billion dollars in 2006 and had churned out large grossers and started making a name for their animated acquisition. Disney also had Pirates of the Carribean which they still were making money off of with Strange Tides and made about-

3 billion from that franchise (which they still will be with future projects). They had Marvel which was bought in 2009 for 4 billion and was starting to make a name for itself.

Anyways, in 2012 Disney was in a fine position to acquire Lucasfilm. The 7 billion spent-

in 2006 was largely or mostly paid off at that point and the 4 billion for marvel was well over 25 percent earnings back from what they paid (the first Avengers movie in May of 2012 generated about a 900 million net profit alone).
*Note here: Yes, Disney has taken and is known

for taking out loans but it has always been easy for them to pay off in the PAST. They generate so much revenue from their parks, cruise lines and movies that it's nothing to take a loan out for a couple billion and pay it off quickly.

So, back to what I was saying about 2012-

When Disney acquired LF, George Lucas appointed and wanted Kathleen Kennedy to head the future of SW. He trusted her with it and while George was sad to see SW go, he hoped that she would lead SW on the right path (And no, I don't fully blame KK for TROS or any of that).

Moving on, Disney started to plan out their trilogy that they would make (and other movies) and cameras started rolling with The Force Awakens in 2014. Marketing for this movie was also CRAZY and CRAZY expensive with them spending an upwards of 300 million on it alone. But it-

did pay off in the end.

For these next parts....I will break down past SW movies (including TROS) and show financial data and why originally Disney wasn't worried at all about Star Wars....until TROS.

So...back at it again. The Force Awakens came out and was HUGE. Even with its large marketing budget, it made a hefty profit that made Disney happy. To break it down:

Multiplier: Over 4. This is really good. Signs of legs and a very profitable movie.

Net profit-800 mil

When I talk about "legs" this is the longevity of a movie at the box office. Anything 3 or higher is considered good. Under 3 is considered "sub par" and 2 or under is really bad.

When I talk about net profit, this is what a movie makes after paying actors, budget, marketing

So it is suffice to say that The Force Awakens was a big success. Not to mention it had an A cinemascore and really good critic reviews.

Moving forward, Rogue One came into the picture. It had good critic reviews and a break down is below:

Multiplier: Over 3.5 (good)

Net profit for Rogue One: About 320 million (which is good).

Interesting thing about Rogue One is that it lost money with reshoots (which I'm actually pretty certain included Vader. Without Vader the net profit of this movie would have been much lower).

So with TFA and RO...

We are on a good track. We have a profit of over 1.1 bil and Disney is fine with that. Now, here is where we get into the "sticky" territory.

The Last Jedi came out in theaters in 2017. It had great critic reviews and also an A cinemascore, similar to that of TFA and RO.

Multiplier for The Last Jedi: 2.9, almost 3 (pretty much good, but just shy of it).

Net profit: 417 million or so

Looking at The Last Jedi, we have an almost good multiplier. There weren't reshoots, so we have a net profit HIGHER than Rogue One. Why wasn't it higher?

Well there is a thing in the film industry called the "middle slog" movie which drops because it's the middle chapter. This is seen in other franchises. The Last Jedi was still a success as it grossed a good amount BUT it did gross half of TFA. But, it's to be expected.

I don't believe Lucasfilm saw it as a failure at all. I'm sure they liked the nice profit, but the issue wasn't so much that as what they "thought" was the online reaction to the movie.

So...they started on a movie that wasn't so much about the "money" as it was to keep fans...

But we will get to that movie later and I will explain why The Rise of Skywalker was an alert for Disney and Lucasfilm and why they must fix it.

Next up...we have Solo: A Star Wars Story

It had decent reviews, not bad, and the general audience was "fine" on it. The issues with this movie is that they had extensive reshoots (though the movie wasn't bad or choppy) and a very high marketing cost for what the budget was.

Multiplier: 2.54 ish (This isn't good)

Net profit for Solo: There really wasn't. Some places report this movie lost 50 million, but I'm going to say it was probably more like 25 million. Had there not been reshoots and too much spent on marketing, this movie would have made a small profit of some kind.

We can say that Solo did lose money, though it wasn't the biggest road block for Star Wars. They can easily relegate a Solo 2 to Disney Plus if they wanted to (low chance, but if they ever wanted to). I speculate that the reason why this movie didn't do well isn't because-

people don't love Han Solo. They do. But because it wasn't Harrison Ford and there weren't any other character TIED to the Skywalkers (besides Chewie) it suffered. A larger cameo by Maul would have helped and a direct tie to the saga (through Ben Solo) would have earned more.

I see a lot of people too questioning Solo and Rogue One. Why did Rogue One do fine without main people but Solo didn't. It's one direct and obvious answer. Darth Vader. Without Darth Vader, I think Rogue One would have struggled getting to even 600 million. It all goes back

to the Skywalkers.

Finally, here is The Rise of Skywalker from the Disney Era. You are going to have to strap in because I have a lot to say. You ready? Ok.

Marketing was down from The Force Awakens. They didn't spend as much on it (and you can tell).

And the break down I will mention left Disney wanting more money than they obviously got.

The Rise of Skywalker multiplier: 2.88 (just a tad lower than The Last Jedi)

Net profit: My initial projections were 350 but people actually re-estimated to around 300 million.

The Rise of Skywalker WAS successful. With the movies, and if we rounded, Disney profited off the sequel movies and RO with around 2 billion. That's a good thing. HOWEVER, Disney paid 4 billion for the franchise and still have not made it back yet.

Worse than that TROS-

has some troubling statistics. Not only does it have the lowest cinema score of ANY of the Star Wars movies, including George Lucas era, but it also has the lowest MULTIPLIER. Even Attack of the Clones had a 3 or so. This means it really didn't go the lengths and as a FINALE-

no less. It made over 100 million less than The Last Jedi and had a negative on Rotten Tomatoes. But, this isn't even what Disney is looking at in terms of money. It's this:

The Rise of Skywalker FLATLINED in the trilogy and the saga. Well actually it did worse than-

flatline. It was slightly lower. This might be a question mark to some people but let me explain.

When a movie that is entered into a story flatlines or does worse, it's an indication that future stories will do worse than flatline and lose $$$. For example-

Let's look at The Amazing Spider-man. The second movie made a profit but made 80 million less than the Amazing Spider-man (the first movie). This was supposed to be a new entry way for a third movie but they ended up scrapping and moving on.

Now I'm not saying they will do-

that with Star Wars. They won't. These are actual Star Wars episodes that we are talking about here. BUT just like the Amazing Spider-man, The Rise of Skywalker isn't supposed to be the last Star Wars movie. There are supposed to be many more to come and a flatlining movie-

mixed with all the other stuff doesn't equal anything good. A FINALE that was supposed to garner interest into other movies FLATLINED and this is one of the biggest franchises in the world. This isn't just a reboot of Spider-man or something that can be re-done. This is-

STAR WARS and that is a huge problem. This also reminds me of Spider-man 3 situation with Toby McGuire in which the movie made more money, but there were multiplier factors that ended up getting SM 4 cancelled and more. Star Wars will never be "cancelled" but if they want -

to make the money they are looking for, they can't afford any more flatlines or else be on Disney Plus....And they haven't even made their money back YET!!!

(Next up, Star Wars- The present)

And another thing before we move on is that while Disney is happy making these good profits, they are looking for low production budget and high $$$ in their wallet. Reshoots and other things prevented this from happening in some. They WANT another movie close to Force Awakens-

And I hate to say it but if they want that, they are going to have to pull out the BIG GUNS to get it. They are looking for that 600-700 mil profit. They WANT Star Wars to be like Marvel making BILLIONS. To do that they need plans and the bloodline can't be "dead" and no-

longer part of the story.

I do find it ironic too how Disney had said that Rise of Skywalker wasn't about the money. It was about making fans happy. But, by trying to do that instead of telling an actual story or seeing it to a certain conclusion, they didn't make the fans HAPPY and they lost a good-

chunk of $$$. But it's all fixable. Ok, moving on now finally to:

Part 2- Star Wars/Lucasfilm- The present

So we have arrived at part two. Lucasfilm AT Present. Well, after Rise of Skywalker, it's nothing new that Disney was likely shocked, or not at critical reception even if they made a decent profit. However, ROS was supposed to be a FINALE. There is always seemingly a bump-

in a FINALE with many movies series, even if it grosses less than the last. Unfortunately, we know that ROS, while profitable is actually not only the lowest grossing of the sequels, but it's also the second lowest grossing in the whole series, only beat by Attack of the Clones-

Attack of the Clones is around 950 million inflated. Revenge of the Sith is over 1.1 billion inflated and Phantom Menace is over 1.4 billion inflated.

So, Disney, in December, was likely sitting around and thinking...How can we make more? Besides the rushed production-

they likely were sitting scratching their heads because they know they have to continue Star Wars and they can't do that while Rise of Skywalker was the worst reviewed, second lowest grossing, lowest of the sequel trilogy that wiped out the Skywalkers, the CORE of Star Wars.

So while Lucasfilm was doing this nonchalantly and counting what they made they were taking their sweet time.

And then....came the CORONAVIRUS.

While LF thought of what they could do...seeing as how they know they need future money, the coronavirus slowly crept in and shut down the film industries, movie theaters, and parks. Oh, and cruise lines. A large bulk of income for Disney is their parks and cruise lines.

With them closed, Disney was at a loss. Well, that wasn't even the worst of what was to come. First their things closed down and then their stocks PLUMMETED. It dropped so low that companies were beginning to take notice. What if another company could buy Disney?

What if they could get Disney at a crazy reasonable and low price? Companies took notice. Apple, who was much less affected by the Coronavirus started taking a peek. Amazon even likely considered (though AMC theaters was more on their radar).

Disney didn't hesitate.

Because they know that other companies were lurking, they took out a whopping 11 billion dollar loan (or loans) to not only keep them afloat, but to prevent another company from buying them (this was the most important).

They felt it would only be maybe a few months until-

They started to get paid more money and after all, they are a rich corporation, right? RIGHT? Well...not anymore. The Coronavirus lasted much longer than they expected. Two extra months and their movies still aren't out. Their cruise lines still aren't happening.

Disney JUST opened up Disney World to scrutiny. Hell, they aren't even listening to the backlash because they NEED the park to open and they NEED it to happen ASAP.

I see many people claim that Disney is doing and will do just fine, but I'm going to mention just how bad it is.

We know right now that Disney movies aren't going to come out until at least August, IF they don't get pushed back further. Disney does have parks open now, but they weren't even fully REFUNDING yearly passes when closed. Why?

They can't afford to let that money go. Same with the cruise line. People wanted refunds on cruises initially but they didn't want to. They just kept saying that people can reschedule (until pushback) because it's TOO MUCH MONEY for Disney to lose.

The ONLY income Disney has

right now are 1. Hulu 2. Disney Plus and 3. Parks that have just now opened up (and likely much less capacity and $$$ than they are used to).

This is unheard of for Disney.

Disney (and by extension Lucasfilm) cannot take their parks not being open and cruises suspended and in all honesty, until there is a vaccine sometime next year (normally 18 months post discovery) they won't be making money. I won't be surprised if their parks re-close-

in the US either.

Where are we now? We have Disney who has 11 billion dollars in debt (and whatever else they have prior to that that they would have paid off fast and accruing). Hardly any income (and Hulu/D plus likely only counts for MAYBE 10 percent of their income).

Disney has nothing right now. They had to stop paying certain employees in April and May to save just under a 1 billion a month, but that's nothing.

Disney needs all their stuff to open and be released at least by August/September or they can't sustain (they can't right now).

Which leads to what happens if things don't get better for them by September ish time frame. Well, they will start selling ASSETS. IF we hear for example, that Disney is in talks to license Marvel Comics then the selling has started. If we hear of PIXAR being sold off, then-

that means that they are even deeper shit than we thought. The following acquisitions will be sold in this type of order:

1. Marvel comics licensing
2. Pixar
3. Lucasfilm
4. Fox
5. Marvel

Disney will not sell of Hulu. It's optimal during a pandemic. Disney will not-

sell off Fox. Why? Because Marvel is their biggest money maker (much higher than Lucasfilm) and by having Fox, they have RIGHTS to almost all characters. Yes, they WILL sell off Lucasfilm before they ever get to Fox/Marvel. Mark my words, IF they sell off Pixar,

Then it IS possible that they could let Lucasfilm go. Anything is possible during this pandemic until there is a vaccine.

Who would buy Lucasfilm? A company that isn't suffering as much. Say....Amazon. It sounds ridiculous, I know.

But so did Disney being broke this and they are. If I hear of Pixar going....it will make me sad. I DON'T want Disney to sell off Lucasfilm at ALL. But it IS a possibility if things get much worse.

Finally on to part 3:

Disney/Lucasfilm-the Future

We are in the final part of this long ass thread and I'm tired. I'm sure you are too, but I have to get this out there because IF Disney keeps Lucasfilm, they are going to have to make some changes and save the franchise. Star Wars is NOTHING without the bloodline

just as Disney is NOTHING without their money. So...to break this to a simple explanation. I will do 1. What happens if LF brings Ben Solo back and my predictions and 2. What happens if LF DOESN'T bring Ben Solo back

1. What happens if Disney brings Ben Solo back

Bringing Ben Solo back as the last of the bloodline will not only save the franchise but it will ensure future interest in future projects. A large problem with killing the bloodline is that Star Wars has always involved it. We get the "let the past die" marker, but by letting-

the full past die, the franchise fades. What happens if LF brings him back (and I mean BACK back, not just some force ghost cameo) is an INVESTMENT.

1. People will pay for future product
2. Sales for merchandise will be slightly better

By sales I mean people will pay big bang buck for Ben Solo merchandise and not "Kylo Ren." Watch as he sells more than Kylo Ren ever did.

3. Faith and trust in Lucasfilm is restored for most (people who hated Last Jedi maybe not). But general audience will pay more $$$

4. When books are made about Ben, they will increase in revenue seen. I'm talking large AMOUNTS of copies sold, unlike anything they had before. Think Rise of Kylo Ren comic. Now think about a novel strategically timed with a Ben Solo movie or show

There are plenty more things I could say, but all of these amount to money. My personal predictions are that he will come back and much more than a force ghost. I believe:

1. It will be live action with Driver reprising (the money maker)
2. Animated will happen too pre/post

3. Some form of appearance in novel or comic IF Disney doesn't get rid of comics

I can't fathom him not coming back. To even think about killing the bloodline was even unfathomable. I have days where I think "what the hell?" It still astounds me.

The thing with Ben Solo is...that being the last Skywalker, he IS Star Wars. Please don't be offended when I say this as I am coming from a money perspective but other characters can die and Star Wars can carry on and make a ton of money. Ahsoka could die and it would carry on.

Rey could die and it would carry on (and I hate the idea of both of the above but they won't kill off female characters). Ben Solo cannot die because he is a REMNANT of George Lucas' vision. By killing him, it is no longer GL vision, this crazy space opera surrounding the Skys

Rey dying in TROS would have made it worse, by the way, but her coming back likely would not have happened. There IS hope simply because Ben Solo has so much on his shoulders. A favored character. Amazing actor. Last bloodline. He IS going to come back.

But just in case....

What IF Ben Solo DOESN'T come back (and this means he remains a force ghost cameo and worse never mentioned again).

1. When I say Lucasfilm will be fucked, I mean it. All future movies will suffer. You won't see many more billion grossers-

which is what they are looking for.

2. I already see how many people care about the High Republic (not all that many but some). This mindset will likely continue and seep into live action areas.

3. As it has been said to me, Star Wars will be Star Trek with lightsabers.

Why watch Star Wars when you can just watch Star Trek? It would be too similar. Space quest and exploration. Check. Different creatures. Check. Star Wars has to maintain what sets it apart....

I truly think the state of SW might become a slow decline that maybe Disney-

does consider selling LF even if they don't have to.

Bringing this all to a conclusion, Ben Solo return can do nothing but benefit LF. They need the money and fans are willing to pay.

Star Wars is a freshly grown plant that has to be taken care of and no return..is bad.

At last this thread is done. If I said something earlier that I forgot to mention or if you have questions you can DM or ask. I hope this helped you see it from a financial view. It isn't just about the theories. Remember, it's all about the money.