Thread by @gmhales, I've been thinking more about #stopsearch disproportionality. Thought I'd have a look [...]

I& #39;ve been thinking more about #stopsearch disproportionality. Thought I& #39;d have a look at Lambeth, which is a borough with v high volumes of SS and lots of youth violence type issues.

1/ THREAD

The MPS #stopsearch dashboard shows SS during Jul19-Jun20 (total n=15,908) focused on males (93%), black subjects (61%), 15-24 yr olds (49%). Peak rate for 15-19 yr olds (309 per 1,000).

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Using the @LDN_data GLA & #39;Ethnic group projections (2016-based housing-led)& #39; I looked at the estimated borough population structure, by gender, age and ethnicity, in 2019.
https://data.london.gov.uk/download/ethnic-group-population-projections/6db9ef87-c946-47c4-a7f1-248ea624da91/Ethnic%20group%20projections%20%282016-based%20housing-led%29.xlsx

3/">https://data.london.gov.uk/download/...

In many ways, it& #39;s a tale of 2 populations: those <20 and those 20+. Here& #39;s the 2019 popn totals by single year of age and ethnicity. I have highlighted the white (green shades) and black ethnic groupings - the latter incl black mixed race. NB the huge white bulge 20-45yrs.

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Lambeth looks to be somewhere young white adults move to in their early 20s, & gradually leave fr their early-30s. By contrast, a significant % of black & black mixed race residents (almost 4 in 10) seem to leave around 19/20. [NB these are popn projections & hence estimates]

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Now see how the ethnic profile varies by single year of age, as % of each year. 15-19yr olds are 49.1% black/black mixed race, 20-24 yr olds only 16.3%, the total population 27.6%. Remember the peak rate of #stopsearch is for 15-19.

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Takeaway point: the ethnic profile of Lambeth& #39;s population varies hugely by age. #stopsearch is concentrated in a v narrow age range, where the demographics are v different to the population as a whole, and even those slightly older.

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What& #39;s the implication/answer: need age-specific disproportionality ratios and a much more focused discussion about who is being subject to #stopsearch. Unfortunately, the published MPS data don& #39;t allow this level of analysis.

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For an eg of such analysis, see this report I wrote in 2007 for the Met, looking at the policing of cannabis possn. http://library.college.police.uk/docs/Policing-Cannabis-London-Redacted.pdf

9/ends">https://library.college.police.uk/docs/Poli...

To add: that 309 per 1,000 figure for 15-19yr olds covers males & females. The male rate will be close to 2x that as almost all SS is on males. Can& #39;t say exactly how it relates to individs as some will be stopped multiple times, but ~40-50% aged 15-19 stopped in 1yr.

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Link to the MPS stop and search dashboard: https://www.met.police.uk/sd/stats-and-data/met/stop-and-search-dashboard/">https://www.met.police.uk/sd/stats-... Charts above from the & #39;searches demographics& #39; tab.

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Another reflection: who are the & #39;faces& #39; the police are most likely to know, and who might be the focus of things like #stopsearch? I& #39;d guess the ones who grew up in and got into offending and ASB in the borough, not the 20s and 30s interlopers. https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1281268573151903745?s=20

12/">https://twitter.com/gmhales/s...

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1281268573151903745?s=20

Nearly forgot to link to the schools census data, which tells a very similar story https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1059449490229338112?s=20

13/">https://twitter.com/gmhales/s...

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1059449490229338112?s=20

That previous tweet is from a longer thread which starts from some personal observations about the bit of S London I live in, including that I don& #39;t see many white teenagers there.

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1059413549276192769?s=20

14/">https://twitter.com/gmhales/s...

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1059413549276192769?s=20

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