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The case for the RAF acquiring the F-35A.
This is not about the RAF trying to scupper carrier strike.
It is about maximising the total number of UK combat aircraft to present a credible deterrent and deliver operational effect in the event of a major international conflict.
This is not about the RAF trying to scupper carrier strike. It is about maximising the total number of UK combat aircraft to present a credible deterrent and deliver operational effect in the event of a major international conflict.
Carrier Strike is a vital capability and must be resourced properly. So how many F-35Bs are needed? Between 60 and 90 depending on who you talk to. How come the original plan was for 138? Because it was anticipated that F-35Bs would be used for more than just the carriers.
While the F35B is a massive leap forward versus the Harrier, it is proving to be more expensive to acquire and support than anticipated. Instead of 138, it appears that we will not now acquire more than 60 F-35Bs. This is a cost not capability decision.
With original totals of 232 Typhoons and 138 F-35Bs, the UK would have had 380 combat aircraft. This would have been credible. However, the real total appears to be 149 Typhoons plus 60 F-35Bs. 209 combat aircraft is not acceptable total.
If the F-35B is too expensive and we don't need more than 60, how do we fill the gap in total combat aircraft? Do we buy 60 more Typhoons (an ageing platform), 30 extra F-35Bs (an expensive platform) or 60 F-35As (comparable price versus Typhoon, but cutting edge)?
What about Tempest? Tempest will replace Typhoon. But since we don't need to replace Typhoon now, it is at least 20 years away from being a reality. This means that Tempest cannot solve today's problem - not enough combat aircraft.
But wouldn't an F35A purchase kill Tempest? No. Because Tempest will do things that F-35B and F-35A cannot do. An F-35A purchase merely delays Tempest. Given the current lack of cash, this may be a good short-term strategy.
Also, there is no guarantee that Tempest will be the leap forward we want it to be. So an F-35A purchase would de-risk the programme. With France and Germany plus the USA developing 6th Generation aircraft, it could make sense to combine one of these with Tempest?
Why are absolute combat aircraft numbers even important? Because, today, you go to war with the resources you have, not those you would ideally like. Ensuring we have enough combat aircraft is defence doing its job.
Finally, an F-35A purchase, would enhance the UK's standing as an F-35 hub for repair, maintenance and upgrades. This could actually reduce the total cost of ownership for both aircraft.
Whatever your view on this topic, it is not an RAF versus RN grudge match. Service in-fighting serves no one's interests. We should also remember that one item potentially on Dominic Cummings's agenda is: if it floats, the RN operates it. If it flies, the RAF operates it.
