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Pakistan& #39;s federal government and their supporters appear to be very happy on the declining number of #COVID19 cases, and are terming it a success.
However, the celebrations might be a bit premature since their interpretation of data is misleading. /1
However, the celebrations might be a bit premature since their interpretation of data is misleading. /1
Notice the sharp decline in testing numbers since end June. That& #39;s the primary reason for the decline in positive cases being reported. /2
Pakistan& #39;s conformed positive cases (per million population) are still the highest in the region and their deaths are still ranked #2 in the region. /3
Pakistan& #39;s share of #COVID19 tests that turned out positive is #2 in the region and considerable higher than India.
Pakistan& #39;s case fatality rate is also second in the region (behind Afghanistan & India combined #1). /4
Pakistan& #39;s case fatality rate is also second in the region (behind Afghanistan & India combined #1). /4
The share of Pakistan& #39;s positive tests daily (7-day average) is 2nd in the region and even higher than United States and United Kingdom.
Remember, these are just reported numbers and the unaccounted positive cases & deaths are even higher per doctors in the field. /5
Remember, these are just reported numbers and the unaccounted positive cases & deaths are even higher per doctors in the field. /5
For some inexplicable reason, Pakistan& #39;s testing numbers started declining around the same time when hospitals and doctors started reporting that there were no more beds or ventilators available.
Was it a govt strategy to ease pressure & restore public confidence? /6
Was it a govt strategy to ease pressure & restore public confidence? /6
Pakistan& #39;s ratio of confirmed cases out of total tested so far is 16.14% , which is second in the region after Bangladesh (19.29%) & far more than global average (4.64%). /7
Other countries...
U.S. 8%
U.K. 2.6%
Italy 4.2%
India 7.16%
Saudi Arabia 10.62%
Iran 13.26%
Brazil 38.4%
Other countries...
U.S. 8%
U.K. 2.6%
Italy 4.2%
India 7.16%
Saudi Arabia 10.62%
Iran 13.26%
Brazil 38.4%
Pakistan& #39;s official COVID19 deaths (out of total positive cases reported) are ~2% i.e. 2nd highest (behind India) in the region, but better than global average & many other countries (unaccounted cases could be higher).
Our recovery rate is almost at par with India & world. /8
Our recovery rate is almost at par with India & world. /8
Pakistan is currently ranked #12 globally in terms of positive cases. It was #15 in June, #18 in May, #22 in April.
Even at this rate, we are likely to break into top 10 before end July. Therefore, to think that the worst is behind us would be a mistake. /9
Even at this rate, we are likely to break into top 10 before end July. Therefore, to think that the worst is behind us would be a mistake. /9
Several U.S. states showed a late surge. When the entire focus was on NY, NJ, CA etc, health experts kept warning against relaxation even though case count might be lower at the time.
That& #39;s exactly what happened, particularly in the southern states. /10 https://www.npr.org/2020/06/30/885659555/the-reasons-behind-the-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-across-the-southern-states">https://www.npr.org/2020/06/3...
That& #39;s exactly what happened, particularly in the southern states. /10 https://www.npr.org/2020/06/30/885659555/the-reasons-behind-the-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-across-the-southern-states">https://www.npr.org/2020/06/3...
Hope the cases in Pakistan stay low (for whatever reason) and we don& #39;t face what U.S. and Italy had to face.
But the point of this thread is that chest-thumping can wait. Job is far from done. Remember it all started with one case in China. /11 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid19-cases-rising-states-reopened">https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...
But the point of this thread is that chest-thumping can wait. Job is far from done. Remember it all started with one case in China. /11 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid19-cases-rising-states-reopened">https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...
Perhaps the top most expert in this pandemic, Dr. Fauci, explains why death count can be low, and also warns that all this can change quickly.
Fun fact: most of his predictions and warnings have been accurate so far (despite Trump& #39;s disagreement). /12 https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/amid-covid-19-resurgence-fewer-deaths-dr-fauci-explains-why">https://www.ama-assn.org/deliverin...
Fun fact: most of his predictions and warnings have been accurate so far (despite Trump& #39;s disagreement). /12 https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/amid-covid-19-resurgence-fewer-deaths-dr-fauci-explains-why">https://www.ama-assn.org/deliverin...
