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Pakistan's federal government and their supporters appear to be very happy on the declining number of #COVID19 cases, and are terming it a success.
However, the celebrations might be a bit premature since their interpretation of data is misleading. /1
However, the celebrations might be a bit premature since their interpretation of data is misleading. /1
Notice the sharp decline in testing numbers since end June. That's the primary reason for the decline in positive cases being reported. /2
Pakistan's conformed positive cases (per million population) are still the highest in the region and their deaths are still ranked #2 in the region. /3
Pakistan's share of #COVID19 tests that turned out positive is #2 in the region and considerable higher than India.
Pakistan's case fatality rate is also second in the region (behind Afghanistan & India combined #1). /4
Pakistan's case fatality rate is also second in the region (behind Afghanistan & India combined #1). /4
The share of Pakistan's positive tests daily (7-day average) is 2nd in the region and even higher than United States and United Kingdom.
Remember, these are just reported numbers and the unaccounted positive cases & deaths are even higher per doctors in the field. /5
Remember, these are just reported numbers and the unaccounted positive cases & deaths are even higher per doctors in the field. /5
For some inexplicable reason, Pakistan's testing numbers started declining around the same time when hospitals and doctors started reporting that there were no more beds or ventilators available.
Was it a govt strategy to ease pressure & restore public confidence? /6
Was it a govt strategy to ease pressure & restore public confidence? /6
Pakistan's ratio of confirmed cases out of total tested so far is 16.14% , which is second in the region after Bangladesh (19.29%) & far more than global average (4.64%). /7
Other countries...
U.S. 8%
U.K. 2.6%
Italy 4.2%
India 7.16%
Saudi Arabia 10.62%
Iran 13.26%
Brazil 38.4%
Other countries...
U.S. 8%
U.K. 2.6%
Italy 4.2%
India 7.16%
Saudi Arabia 10.62%
Iran 13.26%
Brazil 38.4%
Pakistan's official COVID19 deaths (out of total positive cases reported) are ~2% i.e. 2nd highest (behind India) in the region, but better than global average & many other countries (unaccounted cases could be higher).
Our recovery rate is almost at par with India & world. /8
Our recovery rate is almost at par with India & world. /8
Pakistan is currently ranked #12 globally in terms of positive cases. It was #15 in June, #18 in May, #22 in April.
Even at this rate, we are likely to break into top 10 before end July. Therefore, to think that the worst is behind us would be a mistake. /9
Even at this rate, we are likely to break into top 10 before end July. Therefore, to think that the worst is behind us would be a mistake. /9
Several U.S. states showed a late surge. When the entire focus was on NY, NJ, CA etc, health experts kept warning against relaxation even though case count might be lower at the time.
That's exactly what happened, particularly in the southern states. /10 https://www.npr.org/2020/06/30/885659555/the-reasons-behind-the-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-across-the-southern-states
That's exactly what happened, particularly in the southern states. /10 https://www.npr.org/2020/06/30/885659555/the-reasons-behind-the-surge-in-coronavirus-cases-across-the-southern-states
Hope the cases in Pakistan stay low (for whatever reason) and we don't face what U.S. and Italy had to face.
But the point of this thread is that chest-thumping can wait. Job is far from done. Remember it all started with one case in China. /11 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid19-cases-rising-states-reopened
But the point of this thread is that chest-thumping can wait. Job is far from done. Remember it all started with one case in China. /11 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid19-cases-rising-states-reopened
Perhaps the top most expert in this pandemic, Dr. Fauci, explains why death count can be low, and also warns that all this can change quickly.
Fun fact: most of his predictions and warnings have been accurate so far (despite Trump's disagreement). /12 https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/amid-covid-19-resurgence-fewer-deaths-dr-fauci-explains-why
Fun fact: most of his predictions and warnings have been accurate so far (despite Trump's disagreement). /12 https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/amid-covid-19-resurgence-fewer-deaths-dr-fauci-explains-why
