No one knows the future, and we are in uncharted territory, but there is real reason to be *extremely* concerned about Harris County in particular right now.

There are huge testing backlogs, every indicator is moving in the wrong direction, hospital capacity is getting squeezed, though still with some space, it’s a huge metro area, that *continues to be open for business*.

And I think if you sift through the data there’s some reason to believe the virus has been there in fairly high levels for a long time relatively undetected.

The spike you see in this Pro Publica/NBC piece about people dying at home before paramedics can reach them happens *before* the current outreak, back when virus first hits. And it stays elevated and is now ticking up again. That's worrisome. https://www.propublica.org/article/a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-in-houston-may-be-higher-than-reported