Not All Swing States Are Equivalent!

A state like Wisconsin is about getting voters to change their minds. A state like Florida is about getting your voters to the polls. What's crazy about Biden: He's pulling a Wisconsin in Florida (w/ seniors) and succeeding!!

The most annoying thing is when so many in the media treat Florida as if it's the same type of swing state as Wisconsin is. It isn't.

cc @SenhorRaposa @JMilesColeman @hjessy_ @lexkypol @StephieTheLefty @JonMIPol @kilometerbryman @jhkersting does this sort of thing line up with what you've largely seen in past elections and results?

Here's what this map illustrates:

A county with a high elasticity metric is one in which the county swings back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. It's very prone to ticket-splitting at the statewide level and so this is where "swing voters" exist.

A state with a bunch of low-elasticity counties indicates that the voters in the region are relatively set in their ways, and that the margins in the state would be down to turnout, because they just don't ticket-split (any longer) between offices.