June 2020 SST anomalies in the North Atlantic MDR were slightly above average but remain behind hyperactive years like 2005, 2010, and 2017. Thus far, 1995 and 2007 remain comparable with other active years like 1996, 1999, 2004 and 2008 cooler than 2020.

This likely at least partially explains the lack of TC activity in the deep tropics thus far as subsidence has been able hamper development despite an overall favorable background state.

In order to overcome this subsidence, and climatology of the east Atlantic in general, the MDR would need to warm pretty significantly during the next few weeks in order to maximize hurricane activity and verify the busy hurricane season forecast.

Based on current guidance, it appears MDR warming is a good bet as anomalous zonal westerlies dominate the region and enhance oceanic downwelling through the two week forecast period. How much warming occurs will be the biggest quesiton here as we grow ever closer to ASO.