Read on Twitter
Re-upping a thread with some updates, a lot has changed in the past 6 weeks. Fall semester is rapidly approaching. What should we expect?
1/ https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1265984315298664448?s=20
1/ https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1265984315298664448?s=20
With disciplined public health behavior and frequent surveillance testing, I think it is possible to contain viral spread in institutional settings. Frequent testing and rapid turnaround of results are key
/2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309v2
/2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309v2
The reality is that this isn’t going to happen in the US. Universities don’t have the ability to run tens of thousands of test per day that these kind of surveillance programs will require and outbreaks spread quickly
/3 https://gandernewsroom.com/2020/07/01/bar-starts-new-wave/
/3 https://gandernewsroom.com/2020/07/01/bar-starts-new-wave/
We’ve all seen too many news photos to believe that college students are going to adhere to disciplined public health behavior. You’re not going to find a date when you’re wearing a mask
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How quickly will the virus spread on campus? That depends on many factors, but at it’s peak growth rate in February and March, the US case rate was doubling every 3 to 4 days.
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If we assume returning students reflect the US prevalence of COVID-19 is 0.5 to 1%, doubling every 3 to 4 days gets to saturation in 40 to 60 days. In other words, Fall Semester is likely to be really bad, but things should be getting better by Spring
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The SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization rate for 20-29 year olds is probably 0.6% and the fatality rate is around 0.007%. For a campus with 20,000 to 50,000 students there will be hundreds hospitalized and a few fatalities
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https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/24/science.abc3517
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https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/24/science.abc3517
Faculty/staff will be a very different situation. The IHR & IFR for 60 to 69 yro are 7.1% & 0.9% respectively. If the infection spreads to faculty/staff, a similar size campus will face thousands of hospitalizations, including hundreds requiring ICU care and hundreds of deaths
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And don’t forget that we’ll be getting into flu season especially in December to March. This would be a really good year to get your flu shot. They really do prevent the flu and reduce severity if you do get it
/9
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm
/9
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm
Some faculty and some administrators may be able to work from home, but many faculty and many staff will not. Lab courses, clinical experiences, food services and janitorial services all require in person presence
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Schools and universities need to normalize and enforce universal mask use. We don’t allow smoking on campus because we know second hand smoke is dangerous. We also know second hand virus is dangerous. No mask, not welcome, it’s simple
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We need to insure faculty/staff have PPE including N95 masks for vulnerable groups. COVID-19 does spread by small particle aerosols, and it’s a big risk spending hours indoors every week with dozens of students, many of whom will be contagious
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https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/04/03/coronavirus-protection-how-masks-might-stop-spread-through-coughs/5086553002/
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https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/04/03/coronavirus-protection-how-masks-might-stop-spread-through-coughs/5086553002/
Hand washing discipline is important. Although fomites and contact may not be the major mechanism of COVID-19 spread, they clearly do occur. Keep washing your hands!
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Medical personnel are able safely care for contagious patients using PPE and following strict hygiene discipline. Fall semester is going to be very stressful, especially for older/vulnerable faculty and staff. Hopefully by Spring things will be getting better
14/fin
14/fin
