Daniel Jones is the poster child for weird stats. He was 8th in the NFL in “catchable” throw pct (56.5%) at 20+ yds down the field, which is great, but 28th in actual completion pct (25.5%).

I looked at every single deep incompletion on “catchable” balls, and here’s what I found

There were only 4 drops and 3 INTs, which isn’t that high in either category relative to the rest of the league, but 14(!) pass breakups by defenders on those catchable throws.

That’s a super high number, so I investigated WHY so many DBs were able to break up these throws.

By far the biggest issue was Jones struggling to throw deep with the leverage of his receiver and “throw them open”. Far too often he would throw back shoulder when his WR had a step, or throw deep when the DB was stacking, and it made life very hard on his WRs.

Yes, those balls were technically “catchable”, but the extreme disparity between catchable rate and actual catch rate was largely because of ball placement against leverage, ESPECIALLY deep and outside the numbers.

It’s his only real “problem” with accuracy, but it shows up big.