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In a shocking development -- I'm just as surprised as you! -- I think Trump and DeVos are mostly right, at a high level, when it comes to schools reopening for elementary school & younger. And progressives would be making a huge mistake to reflexively oppose them. Here's why. /1
First, given the policy trade-offs and public health realities we are living with, and the data we have now, I think there are ways for preschools, daycares and elementary schools to reopen full-time, in person, safely enough that it is worth it. /2
Second, on the politics: Families NEED child care. I think Trump is positioning himself as the man of the people on this front, and if Democrats reflexively oppose school reopenings, we are positioning ourselves as out-of-touch elitists. /3
Also, a caveat -- I'm going to focus mostly on younger kids. Kids in day care, preschool, and elementary school. Read "kids" and "schools" throughout this thread as such, unless otherwise specified. Middle & high schools are a very different calculation. /4
First, on the policy trade-offs. Parents & kids are truly suffering right now. Kids are not at much risk from COVID. And there's increasing evidence that young kids w/ COVID are only rarely contagious to adults. /5
The costs of kids being out of school are enormous. Mental health for parents AND kids, intellectual development, ability for parents to work, and more. These costs are especially high for younger kids. /6 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/us/coronavirus-schools-reopening-guidelines-aap.html
In addition, kids, especially younger kids, only very rarely have bad cases of COVID. While we've heard about the scary Kawasaki-like syndrome, it's still "exceptionally rare" and mostly limited to older kids. /7 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52648557
For kids elementary school age and younger, there is mounting evidence that they are extremely unlikely to infect each other OR their teachers or parents. /8 https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns
School for young kids is clearly worth the risk for most families, from their perspective. And working in a school with young kids could be as safe as grocery store work. So child care/school should be considered an essential service. /9
Even these public health experts -- who are generally more conservative than the public on COVID risks -- overall agree with my analysis: 2 said if they had young kids, they would send them back to school, and the other 4 were conflicted. /10 https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html
A digression: Middle and high school are different for three reasons.
1) Since young adults make up a disproportionate % of the current wave of COVID infections in the U.S., it appears that at some unknown point in your teens, contagiousness emerges. /11 https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/07/troubling-wave-of-covid-infections-among-20-somethings-arrives-in-pa.html
1) Since young adults make up a disproportionate % of the current wave of COVID infections in the U.S., it appears that at some unknown point in your teens, contagiousness emerges. /11 https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/07/troubling-wave-of-covid-infections-among-20-somethings-arrives-in-pa.html
2) Middle & high schools are structured such that isolating kids and teachers into small in-person pods is muuuuuuch more difficult. If the 7th grade math teacher tests positive for COVID, do you have to close the entire school? /12
3) Middle and high schoolers CAN safely stay at home while their parents are at work/running errands, if necessary. So it's much less disruptive to families and the rest of the economy if those kids can't go to school every day. /13
For young kids, the big problem is the risks for teachers and other adult staff. These are real, important, and MUST be addressed. But remember, it seems young kids won't infect adults. So most of the adults' risk comes from their interactions with EACH OTHER! /14
Protecting adults (teachers, janitors, etc.) from each other is HARD. And it requires money! To do it well: Isolated pods; high student-teacher ratio so that teachers can stay home if sick without disruption, lots of paid sick leave, money for extra supplies, masks, etc.... /15
But I don't see why protecting teachers from each other is fundamentally more impossible than protecting grocery store workers from each other AND all their customers. /16
So why is this the new political flashpoint? If teachers/child care workers should be considered essential workers, & keeping them safe isn't fundamentally harder than keeping grocery store workers safe, & no one is arguing that grocery stores should be closed... /17
...why should anyone be arguing that teachers of young kids shouldn't go back to school? I think the answer is basically: Teachers have more political power, are of a higher social class, and command more respect from the elite than essential workers. /18
To be clear, the political power of teachers is GOOD. Workers should have power! The answer isn't that teachers should have to work in unsafe conditions without sufficient sick leave, or without child care for their own kids while they are at work. /19
The answer is that NO ONE should have to work in an unsafe workplace -- but that doesn't mean no one works, even in a pandemic. We do in fact need essential workers, inc. teachers. So we need to pour resources into making workplaces safe, including schools AND grocery stores. /20
Even @NEAToday isn't saying, we shouldn't have in-person school. They're saying, we need in-person schooling that is SAFE for teachers. And that will take a shit-ton of money, which the fed govt MUST provide. https://www.npr.org/2020/07/07/888510026/what-would-it-take-for-teachers-to-go-back-to-the-classroom-this-fall /21
Politically, I think that calling for schools to stay shut would be a disaster for Democrats. Our base SHOULD be working class people and people of color. These communities need schools for young kids to be open more than anyone else. They NEED SCHOOL. /22
Dems are in danger of allowing Trump to align with working class people on this and make us look like out-of-touch elitists. This is a flashpoint. This is emotional. Politically, WE CANNOT AFFORD TO IGNORE THE NEEDS OF WORKING CLASS FAMILIES. /23
If Dems reflexively oppose Trump on schools for young kids reopening, if schools becomes the new partisan divice, we will be wrong on both the merits and the politics. Do I wish we had more data & prep time? 100%. But given where we are, schools for young kids should reopen. /24
@NEAToday is doing the messaging right here. Follow their lead. Do not say "schools should not open." Say "elementary schools need a massive influx of resources to open safely." The battle should be over resources, not over reopening. /25
P.S. Everything on this thread is my personal view, not the view of @newmediaventure :-)
P.P.S. This article by @germanrlopez is great. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/7/1/21306816/coronavirus-pandemic-reopen-schools-economy-social-distancing
And finally, this article by @juliettelucie is also fantastic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/reopening-bars-easy-schools-are-difficult/613861/
"Americans and their elected representatives must consciously decide that children’s needs are worth accepting some additional risk."
"Americans and their elected representatives must consciously decide that children’s needs are worth accepting some additional risk."
