Of the three tangible risks I think the market (will) care(s) about —
1/ Fed punch bowl
2/ Fiscal own goal
3/ Biden (+sweep) implications
___

Only 2 and 3 are probable and it doesn’t seem like Fiscal own goal is occurring imminently ... (1/n)

They’ll trim narrow PPP ($120bn still unused and why expand something with remaining take up) to be more ‘hospitality’ focused.

The $600/wk extension pre July 31st into $300 or something more is v v likely. I think 20delta they keep it $600/wk ...(2/n)

States will get aid and the gravy train will ride for longer albeit less slap dash, more grinding gears, but no inadvertent faux pas for shorts to celebrate.

Feels like stimulus is floored at ~$1trn and delivered after July 20th when Senate returns but before House recess. (3/n)

So that leaves Biden (+sweep) risk which is material but as @jturek18 has mentioned unclear *when* mkt will care enough.

My $.02... high prob cap gains > $1m treated as income. Corp tax probably reversed to 25-27% not more but GILTI and Min Tax and SS payroll bigger deal. (4/n)

Then you have Warren with a major cabinet position. Why would he pick her as VP? They lose a valuable senate seat if he does. Bookies are on Kamala I think Lance Bottoms decent odds.
In general I think a Biden govt is about normalizing shareholder > employee spread. (5/n)

The last spanner could be Trump contests mail-in voting results in swing states where he doesn’t lose by landslide, and EC state electors in those states where Barr initiates an investigation can’t vote, then that’s chaotic. (6/n)

...bottom line : short term runway clear despite positioning more full. Fed Put near-the-money, fiscal own goals unlikely near term, and mkt will take time to grasp what Biden govt really means (4months is a loonnng time away). Much of tech probably beats-and-raises in Q2. (End).