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At risk of arousing as little interest & agreement as my earlier material on this, I'm posting a few more thoughts on the Jean Castex issue: France's new Prime Minister, nominally under Macron.
The new situation is world-unique.
Born of France's specificity.
(15 tweets - sorry.)
The new situation is world-unique.
Born of France's specificity.
(15 tweets - sorry.)
First, you need to understand France's also unique constitutional structure.
Usually countries are led by EITHER President OR Prime Minister (PM). In the (not so rare) cases where they have both, the President is more like a constitutional monarch. The PM then sets the course.
Usually countries are led by EITHER President OR Prime Minister (PM). In the (not so rare) cases where they have both, the President is more like a constitutional monarch. The PM then sets the course.
Not so here.
In the (counter?)revolutionary constitutional order set by genius statesman-lawgiver Charles de Gaulle 1958, the President - directly elected - is semi-omnipotent - far more so (technically) than even a US President.
Curiously, this does NOT make the PM a mere extra.
In the (counter?)revolutionary constitutional order set by genius statesman-lawgiver Charles de Gaulle 1958, the President - directly elected - is semi-omnipotent - far more so (technically) than even a US President.
Curiously, this does NOT make the PM a mere extra.
In theory he certainly should be - & often has been. But precisely because the President is so powerful - specifically: unlike an eg British PM, the Parliament cannot "fire" Presidents, but they (amazingly!) can "fire" (dissolve) Parliament - the PM becomes a separate instrument.
Sometimes that instrument gets hijacked by the Parliamentary majority - as when Presidents Mitterand, then Chirac, had to "cohabitate" with opposition majorities - thus becoming absurdly weakened in the process, as the "enemy" majority & PM then set France's political course.
But VASTLY more interesting - & this is of course why I now bore you with this thread - is when the PM becomes an instrument for the President (& others) to subvert his own parliamentary majority - which ironically happens to be his own party, but has now grown inconvenient!
Macron's Presidency was from the start abnormal.
His first PM also came from the enemy "normie" Conservative Right. However, that PM was a "Juppéiste" - globo centre-right if you will - so the ideological clash w Macron's own party seemed minimal.
Still, it was already bizarre.
His first PM also came from the enemy "normie" Conservative Right. However, that PM was a "Juppéiste" - globo centre-right if you will - so the ideological clash w Macron's own party seemed minimal.
Still, it was already bizarre.
It was bizarre, because - to be 100 % honest - it barely seemed necessary, & also because several key ministers in that govt already - notably the (Ăn France) all-important Education minister (remember how politics is downstream from culture?) - were even further hardliners.
But back to Castex.
Castex is no "Juppéiste". He's a "Sarkozyste".
A soft-identitarian "social Gaullist" like former President Sarkozy, especially in his final 2 Presidency years.
That's night & day.
(Not fully comparable, but think Lindsay Graham vs Matt Gaetz.)
Castex is no "Juppéiste". He's a "Sarkozyste".
A soft-identitarian "social Gaullist" like former President Sarkozy, especially in his final 2 Presidency years.
That's night & day.
(Not fully comparable, but think Lindsay Graham vs Matt Gaetz.)
I already hear the scepticism of my French subscribers: They've seen it all before.
This, they'd argue, is classic pre-election re-centering - voter schmooze - to deny Ms Le Pen the centre.
What they don't recognize is: Macron is now 100 % independent of his own lefty majority!!
This, they'd argue, is classic pre-election re-centering - voter schmooze - to deny Ms Le Pen the centre.
What they don't recognize is: Macron is now 100 % independent of his own lefty majority!!
Does he need them to pass legislation?
No. He could co-operate ad hoc w the Right (& possibly will up to election).
All his reticent backbenchers know this.
He can also, if they truly rebel, still dissolve Parliament for an early new election, though time's running out for that.
No. He could co-operate ad hoc w the Right (& possibly will up to election).
All his reticent backbenchers know this.
He can also, if they truly rebel, still dissolve Parliament for an early new election, though time's running out for that.
But more crucially yet: He has ZERO credible presidential competitor on the Left.
The 2 foremost are respectively so extreme/weak that everybody knows that were either pushed to 2nd round, Ms Le Pen would win against them.
MLP is the left's NIGHTMARE.
& so... it's stuck w Macron.
The 2 foremost are respectively so extreme/weak that everybody knows that were either pushed to 2nd round, Ms Le Pen would win against them.
MLP is the left's NIGHTMARE.
& so... it's stuck w Macron.
