the most dangerous thing you can do in a crisis is lose your sense of perspective.

so let's add some.

lots of media claims NY, CA, FL are turning into "new new yorks"

the data paints a starkly different picture.

peak NY: 51 deaths/day/mm
7 day MA
TX: 1.43
FL: 2.25
CA: 1.69

consider what that means. at current rates, it would take texas 36 days of deaths to equal the one peak day in NY.

texas is 2.8% of that level.
florida is 4.4% of that level
california is 3.3% of that level.

seems a bit premature to be calling them "new new yorks," no?

one might be forgiven for asking just what the media is playing at here.

not a one of these states is nearly as bad as NY was in mid may.

and "cases" and "% positive" have become such awful metrics that they mean little to nothing. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280591001778708480?s=20

nationally, the number of patients in ICU has barely budged and the % of patients in ICU as a % of overall hospitalizations is WAY down.

less than 4% of US hospital capacity is currently covid. 7% of baseline ICU is.

(and if i hear one more person misuse "simpson's paradox" while trying to sound smart, i seriously do not know. please stop. you're just wrong and do not understand what yule-simpson means. the fact that IBM and intel are up while the S+P is down is NOT a simpson's paradox...)

such issues as exist are all focused in US border states, destination hospitals proximate to latin amerca, and states with big latin american migrant workforces. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/health/border-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

none of these states have struggling hospitals.

this is TX available hospital beds. currently 23% available.

here's houston, the city everyone is so worried about.

there are 1814 ICU beds in use. intermediate surge capacity is 2275.

florida looks similarly fine.

20% of hospital beds are available statewide and 15.4% of ICU. these are totally normal numbers and keep in mind that that's base ICU, not surge. surge could take FL from 6000 ICU to ~9000. so current census is 56% of surge (per CDC)

nor is californa looking stressed (though i cannot find good real time data for them apart from CDC which uses different metric than others. does anyone have some?)

CDC says 38% of surge hosp beds avail, 10.3% of beds currently covid, and 44% ICU available.

so, there you go.

fear and outrage sell newspapers and generate clicks so be wary of them.

the media is not on your side, they are on their own side, and their side wants more revenue.

the will happily inflame rather than inform if it works for the bottom line.