I’ve been thinking about what the COVID-19 current impact on oil demand tells us about future oil demand. Barrel counters looking at auto use too in weeds. Expanded disease vector comes with climate change. Impact of disease vectors on oil demand significant beyond COVID (thread)

Most long range high oil demand narratives and modeling ignores disruption climate change has on mobility, trade, manufacturing output, and economic growth/recovery (thread)

In same way COVID-19 has disrupted economies, global trade, and intl travel, intensification of climate change will produce similar impacts. So BAU forecasts that project both strong economic growth, high oil use, 4 degrees warming or 6 degrees warming internally flawed (thread)

Should be more obvious now world with 4 or 6 degrees warming would face serious detriments to global oil demand via disruptions to trade, health crises, weather and health related disruptions to manufacturing, hinderances to global mobility, industrial accidents etc (thread)

Modeling of oil BAU needs full re-evaluation of escalating climate risk under high emission feedbacks. #peakoildemand