Do social assistance programmes reach the poor? @orianabandiera and I look at the evidence from 123 developing countries and find that the poorest are left behind. [Thread] 1/n @Ugentilini

https://www.theigc.org/publication/do-social-assistance-programmes-reach-the-poor-micro-evidence-from-123-countries/ https://twitter.com/The_IGC/status/1280816491898822657

1. Of all social protection schemes, social assistance reaches the largest number of people but...the majority (82%) of people in low income countries receive no social protection. 2/n

2. Coverage of social assistance is still very low in low-income countries, particularly those in Africa and South Asia. (Regional graphs in the brief) 3/n

3. Most strikingly, a large proportion (26%) of #SocialAssistance expenditure goes to the richest people in low income countries. The poorest a slightly higher proportion receive 28%.

4/n

4. This regressive nature of assistance programmes is particularly stark in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, the richest 20% and the poorest 20% get about the same share of total assistance funding!

5/n

5. While the state of formal employment and statistical capacity of a country might explain part of the relationship between poor targeting and a country’s income levels, they account for only 14% of the variation.

6/n

In our forthcoming paper, Oriana and I will try and explore additional explanatory factors. A huge thank you to @WorldBank/ @WBG_SPLabor for support on the ASPIRE dataset & to @The_IGC communications team.

7/n & n/n