The COVID mutation that Dr. Salvaña was talking about in that CNN interview is a change in Spike, the viral protein that the virus uses to infect human cells. A group of scientists have identified a version of Spike (let's call it the G form) that seems to be able to infect

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cells more efficiently than the version of Spike identified in viruses isolated from China early on in the pandemic (let's call this earlier version the D form) [see ref 1].

One thing we have to clarify is that the G form is NOT NEW. Analyses done in March have already

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detected this form [ref. 1], which means that even back then, this form already existed. If it already existed back then, the G form could have entered the Philippines AT ANY POINT since March (or even earlier, when the form existed but was not yet detected) up to now.

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Do we have a way of knowing if and when the G form entered the Philippines? The most direct way would have been to track the forms of Spike entering and circulating the Philippines by sequencing virus isolates from different timepoints during the outbreak in the country.

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Unfortunately, we only have eight (8) SARS-CoV-2 sequences from viruses collected in March. None of the 8 sequences have the G form (based on Nextstrain), but these are only 8 sequences from one month out of the 40k+ cases that we have accumulated in half a year.

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We don't have sequences from any other timepoint during our outbreak. Thus, we can't determine if the G form is present in the Philippines or when it entered the country (if it is present here) based on sequences simply because we don't have the data.

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Can we infer the presence of the G form from the increase in number of cases, as Dr. Salvaña did in that CNN interview? I'm gonna put out a disclaimer here that I'm not an epidemiologist, but simple logic tells us that there are VERY MANY FACTORS that could

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cause an increase in the number of cases. For one, the IATF has loosened restrictions on NCR and other regions for a month now. This means there's increased contact, which would lead to increased cases. But more importantly, our pandemic response has been severely lacking.

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There are so many gaps in our test, trace, isolate system, which means transmission WILL occur. The MRT's difficulty in tracing the contacts of the station workers who tested positive for COVID is a stark reminder of this.

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Ultimately, I believe that Dr. Salvaña's statement was irresponsible because

(1) it was mostly speculative, with no data and analysis to back it up, and

(2) only served to make excuses for the government's failure to contain the COVID outbreak in the country.

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We shouldn't attribute the spread of COVID in the country to changes in the virus's behavior if gaps in our pandemic response could sufficiently explain it.

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6) Finally, regardless of which strain is present in the country, it is the gov't's responsibility to treat those who have gotten sick and to contain the outbreak ASAP to prevent further infections. This admin has been failing in that regard.

#MassTestingNowPH

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REFERENCES

1) the paper about the G form of Spike (ie Spike containing a D614G mutation): https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30820-5.pdf

2) additional reference: commentary on the D614G paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420308175