I would guess that, if Joe Biden is elected in 2020, Chief Justice Roberts will start to vote in a more consistently conservative way. And that would be consistent with his institutional approach to the judiciary.

Quick thread.

I've tended to see the Chief as as sort of Burkean institutionalist. It makes sense that he would react to Trump's insanity, and the replacement of so many institutions with pure partisanship, by trying to keep things as stable as he can.

If I'm right, that has two basic parts. First, he doesn't want the Supreme Court to allow itself to be dragged into partisan battles. Perhaps the easiest example is abortion: He voted the wrong way (as he saw it) to keep the law stable.

Of course, it's not like that's the only criteria he is using when he votes. (No need to play the "but what about" game.) But I think it's a bigger influence on his thinking than it is for any other Justice.

And there's a flip side. On the shadow docket, he's often being the 5th vote to stop trial courts from enjoining Trump policies. He presumably sees these judges as overstepping. To keep courts from being dragged in, he's keeping trial judges from jumping into the arena.

A Biden presidency would return the Presidency to a more stable footing. From a Burkean institutionalist perspective, that takes the pressure off of the courts to maintain stability.

Just as a cray cray President puts pressure on the Supreme Court to maintain stability, a more institutional Presidency would create breathing room for a less institutional Supreme Court. Could see Roberts voting in less institutional ways. My guess, anyway. /end