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I would guess that, if Joe Biden is elected in 2020, Chief Justice Roberts will start to vote in a more consistently conservative way. And that would be consistent with his institutional approach to the judiciary.
Quick thread.
Quick thread.
I& #39;ve tended to see the Chief as as sort of Burkean institutionalist. It makes sense that he would react to Trump& #39;s insanity, and the replacement of so many institutions with pure partisanship, by trying to keep things as stable as he can.
If I& #39;m right, that has two basic parts. First, he doesn& #39;t want the Supreme Court to allow itself to be dragged into partisan battles. Perhaps the easiest example is abortion: He voted the wrong way (as he saw it) to keep the law stable.
Of course, it& #39;s not like that& #39;s the only criteria he is using when he votes. (No need to play the "but what about" game.) But I think it& #39;s a bigger influence on his thinking than it is for any other Justice.
And there& #39;s a flip side. On the shadow docket, he& #39;s often being the 5th vote to stop trial courts from enjoining Trump policies. He presumably sees these judges as overstepping. To keep courts from being dragged in, he& #39;s keeping trial judges from jumping into the arena.
A Biden presidency would return the Presidency to a more stable footing. From a Burkean institutionalist perspective, that takes the pressure off of the courts to maintain stability.
Just as a cray cray President puts pressure on the Supreme Court to maintain stability, a more institutional Presidency would create breathing room for a less institutional Supreme Court. Could see Roberts voting in less institutional ways. My guess, anyway. /end
