A lot of people are looking at the daily 100+ cases in Tokyo and asking if we're headed back to a state of emergency. Here's some of the reasons why authorities are justified when they say this time, things are different. 1/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-08/hundreds-of-cases-but-no-lockdown-what-s-changed-in-japan?sref=tXumBMhb

First, there are a lot of cases, yes - but authorities know where the majority of them are coming from. This is a result of a cluster-busting and contact tracing (aggressively testing those likely to be in contact with an infected person) and mass testing of host clubs. 2/

Next, look at the age group of the cases so far versus the cases in April. Then it was largely impacting all age groups, including the vulnerable elderly. This time around 2/3 of cases are from people in their 20s or 30s. Why's that important? 3/

Firstly, because very few deaths in Japan have come from younger people. Just five of the almost 1,000 deaths have come from people under 40. More than half of the deaths are from very vulnerable over 80s. 4/

This also means the medical system is, so far, holding up. There has been a uptick in the last weeks, but Tokyo still has lots of capacity. More importantly, serious cases (needing a ventilator or ICU) are at the lowest they've been since Tokyo started tracking - just 8 cases. 5/

Meanwhile Tokyo has boosted testing to around an average of 2,000 tests a day, while the positive test rate has plummeted since April. 6/

Still lots to be concerned about. Cases have about doubled from consistent 30s, to 50s, to now consistent 100+. If that doubles again, things will change.

But Japan's response continues to be managing risk while resuming normal life, not attempting to eliminate the virus. 7/

Different countries continue to have different approaches. South Korea has had 40-50 cases a day for weeks now. Germany has reopened with still hundreds of cases a day. The government knows the economic effects of another SOE in Japan would be devastating. 8/

So this is where we are right now - right in the middle of the "dance" phase of the "Hammer and Dance" analogy. And it seems this could really be the new normal until treatment or a vaccine is developed. All eyes will continue to be on those daily cases. 9/end