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Some folks arguing that rising cases of COVID no big deal because people aren’t getting sick
And death rates still falling so its all harmless, right?
Actually, no.
Closer look at data tells a concerning story
Deaths starting to rise. Exactly as we worried about
Thread
And death rates still falling so its all harmless, right?
Actually, no.
Closer look at data tells a concerning story
Deaths starting to rise. Exactly as we worried about
Thread
Before I jump into data, here's my approach
All data from @covid19tracking.
All using 7 day moving avg (because daily data bouncy)
And all comparing today (7/7) vs. exactly 2 weeks ago (6/23)
What do we see? Some concerning numbers
2/8
All data from @covid19tracking.
All using 7 day moving avg (because daily data bouncy)
And all comparing today (7/7) vs. exactly 2 weeks ago (6/23)
What do we see? Some concerning numbers
2/8
I look at 5 states with the highest number of new cases / population (7-day rolling avg).
Again, comparing today to 14 days ago.
Alphabetically:
1. Arizona:
Testing up 12%
Cases up 36%
Current Hospitalizations up 66%
Dally deaths up 79%
3/8
Again, comparing today to 14 days ago.
Alphabetically:
1. Arizona:
Testing up 12%
Cases up 36%
Current Hospitalizations up 66%
Dally deaths up 79%
3/8
2. Florida:
Testing up 80%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps not available
Daily deaths up 37%
3. Louisiana:
Testing up 15%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps up 50%
Daily deaths up 7%
4. South Carolina:
Testing up 56%
Cases up 65%
Current Hosps up 76%
Daily deaths up 62%
4/8
Testing up 80%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps not available
Daily deaths up 37%
3. Louisiana:
Testing up 15%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps up 50%
Daily deaths up 7%
4. South Carolina:
Testing up 56%
Cases up 65%
Current Hosps up 76%
Daily deaths up 62%
4/8
5. Texas:
Testing up 41%
Cases up 86%
Current Hosps: up 140%
Daily deaths up 52%
And what about next 5 states?
Georgia, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, and California.
They all have big increases in hospitalizations
And 4 out of 5 have increased deaths...all but Georgia
5/8
Testing up 41%
Cases up 86%
Current Hosps: up 140%
Daily deaths up 52%
And what about next 5 states?
Georgia, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, and California.
They all have big increases in hospitalizations
And 4 out of 5 have increased deaths...all but Georgia
5/8
And for contrast
New York:
Testing down 4%
Cases up 2%
Current Hosps: down 32%
Daily deaths down 56%
So what does this all tell you?
6/8
New York:
Testing down 4%
Cases up 2%
Current Hosps: down 32%
Daily deaths down 56%
So what does this all tell you?
6/8
First, remember
Death is a lagging indicator
Deaths rising in 5 of 5 states with largest outbreaks. In 9 out of top 10 states!
National mortality numbers funny because states like NY, NJ, MA still falling.
So rise in some places, fall in others makes nation look flat
7/8
Death is a lagging indicator
Deaths rising in 5 of 5 states with largest outbreaks. In 9 out of top 10 states!
National mortality numbers funny because states like NY, NJ, MA still falling.
So rise in some places, fall in others makes nation look flat
7/8
Let’s stop pretending cases are rising but its all harmless
Big increases in hospitalizations were obvious days ago
Now, rising death toll in those states
Exactly as the clinical course of COVID would predict.
Let’s focus on slowing the spread of this serious disease
Fin
Big increases in hospitalizations were obvious days ago
Now, rising death toll in those states
Exactly as the clinical course of COVID would predict.
Let’s focus on slowing the spread of this serious disease
Fin
