UAMS model recap posted. I'll try to hit the highlights here.

First, I really encourage you to watch the video and read the report summary yourself. I can't say it better than they do. Both are linked in the post. https://arkansascovid.com/2020/07/updated-uams-models/
We are on a path toward 150,000 active cases by the end of October.

What's an active case? Those are the people who are currently sick at any one given time. For the past couple of weeks, Arkansas has hovered around 6,000 active cases.
Why the 2,400% increase? The model isn’t just projecting the active cases we know about. It also includes those we know are out there but we aren’t identifying thru testing – the mildly symptomatic who may not seek out or qualify for a test but who are quietly spreading the virus
To quote the summary: “Note that the model predicts total infections, not confirmed cases, which are likely to be only a small fraction of total infections.”
The June 19 model projected 16,000 cumulative cases by the end of the month. Instead, we surpassed 20,000 cases at the end of June.

From the summary: “The curve now suggests that the epidemic in Arkansas is growing at a much faster rate than the majority of April, May and June.”
The Time-Series Short-term model, a more conservative model, projects that we will be at 30,000 cumulative cases and 375 deaths by July 12. As of July 7, Arkansas was at 24,512 cumulative cases and 301 deaths.
We have different scenarios based on behavior. If we do nothing, we’re on track to see 20k new cases/day by Sept 30.

If we mitigate spread to a modest degree (ex, some people mask), that 20k drops to 12k new cases a day.

If everyone wears a mask out in public? 6,000 a day.
The model predicts that cases in Arkansas will peak on October 30, with:

- 150k active cases
- 2,794 Arkansans hospitalized
- 838 Arkansans in the ICU
- 586 Arkansans on a ventilator
The model doesn’t predict the state will exceed its capacity for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators – however, that’s considering only Covid-19 patients. It doesn’t include heart attacks, car crashes, or other patients that require ICU beds.
Let’s dig deeper into that. Arkansas has 8,917 hospital beds, and 6,005 were occupied on July 6 by non-Covid patients. If 2,794 Covid patients are hospitalized on top of the current non-Covid number, that would be 8,799 occupied hospital beds – 118 beds shy of full occupancy.
The ICU picture looks more dire. Arkansas currently has 982 ICU beds, 649 of which were occupied on July 6 by non-Covid patients. If 838 Covid patients were added to the current non-Covid number, that would be 1,487 ICU beds – 505 more beds than state capacity.
Next up, ventilators. The state has 964 ventilators, 250 of which were in use on July 6 by non-Covid patients. If 586 Covid patients were added to the current non-Covid number on ventilators, that’s 836 ventilators – 128 below the state’s capacity.
From a regional perspective, things look different. I plan to deep dive into capacity by region in a future post, but sufficeth to say that the worst-case scenario projection for NWArk has it alone needing 924 ICU beds on Oct 9. That’s 94% of all the beds available in the state.
If you want to look at regional projections more deeply, I have both the mean-case and worst-case scenarios posted for each public health region on peak dates and Aug. 1. It's all on the blog but too much to post here.
The forecasts illuminate the path that we’re on right now. That doesn’t mean the path won’t change as behaviors change or societal events occur. The chart below shows new cases around holidays and school reopening, as well as various scenarios based on behavior.
I have more to post about these models, but I’ll leave it with this for now:
The next 2-3 weeks are predetermined through previous actions and acquired infections. We can’t change that. But we can change next month. We can change October. We don't have to be the red line.
You can follow @ArkansasCovid.
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