I was told that declines in the Northeast were covering up for big problems in the South and West...

But deaths aren’t rising anywhere

Flat as a pancake in the South and West essentially since early May

@kerpen @boriquagato @gummibear737 @AlexBerenson

Just wait two weeks!

But in the Midwest the case trend inflected higher on June 17 (20 days ago)

In the South the kink higher came on June 10 (27 days ago)

In the West the kink higher came on June 16 (19 days ago)

We are running out of time for the lag thesis to stay credible

By running out of time, I mean if the South isn’t seeing 30%+ more deaths per day (week on week or 7d moving average) by the end of this week, it is over as a thesis.

And for completeness, hospitalizations in the South and West kinked on almost the identical dates. Does not provide any “more time” to the wait two weeks hypothesis.