Kanye running: an opinion thread (objective-ish)

Kanye running may harm the Democratic party, but will likely not impact the Republican incumbent. Here’s why:

Kanye is likely to take votes away from Democratic candidates in states his name is on the ballot. Youth and progressives are most likely to vote for him and he has celebrity recognition. Some will also do it for a laugh frankly (unless he soon shows some amazing policy).

Kanye is also only allowed to appear on the ballot in states where the deadline has not yet passed. Note: Texas, Indiana, N. Carolina, and New Mexico have already past deadline. He may still be a write-in, if he actually runs (as of today he has yet to file with the FEC).

What is interesting about those four states is Trump won 3 in 2016, with New Mexico being a battleground state. This means Kanye will not be on ballot in states where Trump is already likely to win.

Kanye running as an independent means that he will effectively take away votes from Democratic candidates, without subjecting the Republican incumbent to the same. With enough popular support he is able to appear on ballot without winning a party nomination as an independent.

On top of that, Republicans are unlikely to vote for Kanye since he does not follow their ideals, unless “Closed on Sunday” actually spoke to them (cheeky, I know). His running therefore appears to narrow the popular gap between the two major party candidates.

As we know, in 2016 the Democratic candidate won the popular vote, however delegates secured the electoral college in favor of the Republican incumbent. As Kanye is (highly) unlikely to secure delegates, a similar result is possible.

The question is (less objective): Has Trump pissed off enough people to push delegates away from him? Answer: most likely not. There is no major candidate opposing Trump, meaning Republicans are likely to favor their party candidate if they don’t want to be voted out of Congress.

(Back to objective) Unless radical popular and electoral support shifts away from the incumbent, it is plausible that it will be as I said: A narrowing of the popular gap between the two major party candidates, thereby negatively impacting the Democratic party. End thread.