Thread by @bopinion, In the past month, the U.S. has seen: More than a million [...]

In the past month, the U.S. has seen:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> More than a million new infections

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> More than 30,000 people hospitalized

The recent spike in Covid-19 infections has mercifully been accompanied by a declining death count https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

A Lower Covid-19 Death Rate Is Nothing to Celebrate

Fatalities still stand to rise, and many survivors will suffer lasting health problems.

https://trib.al/gftrYsK

Thankfully, much has been learned about how to treat Covid-19.

Even though death is a lagging indicator, and the numbers are likely to catch up to some degree, there’s reason to hope that the lag could now be longer and slower than it was in the spring https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

But a lower death count is no justification for states to reopen their economies without caution.

It also isn’t a reason to suggest, as the White House appears to be doing, that Americans should just get used to living with Covid-19 https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Why do fatalities lag behind cases? Covid-19 is a rather slow-going illness. It takes time to:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">Develop an infection

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">Require hospitalization

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⌛️" title="Sanduhr" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr">Have an acute infection result in death https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Why do fatalities lag behind cases? Covid-19 is a rather slow-going illness. It takes time to:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

Develop an infectionhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">Require hospitalizationhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⌛️" title="Sanduhr" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr">Have an acute infection result in death https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." title="Why do fatalities lag behind cases? Covid-19 is a rather slow-going illness. It takes time to:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">Develop an infectionhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">Require hospitalizationhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⌛️" title="Sanduhr" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr">Have an acute infection result in death https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

Also, deaths aren’t always reported in a timely manner, so you can see why fatalities are slow to rise and fall.

Note that at the moment, the U.S. is less than a month into a sustained increase in cases https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Death tolls are rising in hot-spot states such as:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↗️" title="Nordost gerichteter Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Nordost gerichteter Pfeil">Arizona

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↗️" title="Nordost gerichteter Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Nordost gerichteter Pfeil">Florida

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↗️" title="Nordost gerichteter Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Nordost gerichteter Pfeil">Texas

But those deaths have been balanced so far by declining figures in initially hard-hit states https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Death tolls are rising in hot-spot states such as:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

California is an unusual case.

Its case numbers are rising, yet its death count is still flat. This may be evidence that fewer of those people most likely to die from Covid-19 are now contracting the virus https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

This possibility is reinforced by data from several other states showing that Covid cases are skewing younger.

Such an age shift means that more people arriving at the hospital have a better chance of surviving https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Because hospitals are less crowded, patients of all ages are getting better treatment. Advanced care is also helping people recover from severe illness:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Remdesivir

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Dexamethasone (a steroid)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Proning (having patients lie on their stomachs) https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Because hospitals are less crowded, patients of all ages are getting better treatment. Advanced care is also helping people recover from severe illness:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

Remdesivirhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Dexamethasone (a steroid)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Proning (having patients lie on their stomachs) https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." title="Because hospitals are less crowded, patients of all ages are getting better treatment. Advanced care is also helping people recover from severe illness:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Remdesivirhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Dexamethasone (a steroid)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Proning (having patients lie on their stomachs) https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

But a lower average death count — say, 500 a day — is still tragic.

If the U.S. continues to add 50,000-plus new cases a day, the number of deaths will rise. Rampant case growth will inevitably breach measures that lead to better outcomes https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

If current trends continue, the virus will inevitably spread to more older Americans.

As hospitals in hot spots fill up, the crowding will lead to more deaths — from Covid-19 as well as other illnesses for which people cannot get care https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Death isn’t the only concern raised by rising infection rates. Covid-19 may also cause significant harm to those who survive:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🫀" title="Anatomical heart" aria-label="Emoji: Anatomical heart">Long-lasting organ damage

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🫁" title="Lungs" aria-label="Emoji: Lungs">Weakening from ventilators

These painful consequences are not included in the data we see https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

Death isn’t the only concern raised by rising infection rates. Covid-19 may also cause significant harm to those who survive:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

Long-lasting organ damagehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🫁" title="Lungs" aria-label="Emoji: Lungs">Weakening from ventilatorsThese painful consequences are not included in the data we see https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." title="Death isn’t the only concern raised by rising infection rates. Covid-19 may also cause significant harm to those who survive:https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🫀" title="Anatomical heart" aria-label="Emoji: Anatomical heart">Long-lasting organ damagehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🫁" title="Lungs" aria-label="Emoji: Lungs">Weakening from ventilatorsThese painful consequences are not included in the data we see https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

Covid patients probably have a better chance of survival now than they did in March.

But that’s no reason to allow infections to keep soaring https://trib.al/gftrYsK ">https://trib.al/gftrYsK&q...

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