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As I follow the mounting evidence, I wanted to share my current thinking on why/how SARS-CoV-2 is spreading. It is critical that we understand why/how so we can stop the spread. Note - it is not that different from our Science Perspective published on May 27 (1/)
It appears that some people (i.e. superspreaders) have a much higher R0 than the reported average (2-5) for SARS-CoV-2. For some, it is reasonable to assume their R0 could actually approach that of measles. (2/)
Remember, R0 is an average value--but there is a distribution of R0 for individuals. So, if you are unlucky and in the room with one of an asymptomatic superspreader at an event--you will breathe the same air. (3/)
This would explain what is leading to these "cluster" events where 80-90% of the people in the same room/factory/restaurant/church/nursing facility get infected. (4/)
The "smoking gun" for the airborne pathway is that all people in a poorly ventilated room share the same air but not the same contaminated surfaces. There is no way to explain this same amount of spread off a surface or by people being too close to one infected person. (5/)
Bottom line: the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is likely not about a bunch of people spreading it evenly....it is about aerosols/airborne spread by superspreaders who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. (6/)
Important word of caution: As we move forward and the infection levels continue to go up (% positive), the chance of you being in a room with 1 superspreader goes up too. In other words, behaviors you have used in the past and gotten away with will likely not work any longer(7/)
Wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding crowds particularly indoors, ventilation, washing hands--all are key to stopping the spread. The sooner we adhere to these guidelines, the sooner we can all resume our normal lives. See New York as a model example for the US! (8/end)
