Thread by @Bankfieldbecky, Evidence on unburnable oil, gas & coal: a thread.Yesterday I asked for [...]

Evidence on unburnable oil, gas & coal: a thread.

Yesterday I asked for your go-to references on ‘unburnable carbon’ – i.e. the amount of oil, coal & gas that must stay in the ground if we’re to meet Paris goals.

Got some great responses – here goes
1/16

Background: fossil companies eg @WCumbriaMining & @The_Banks_Group claim it’s better to open new mines here rather than importing.

But there are already TOO MANY extraction sites worldwide. Investing in additional sites risks carbon overshoot & stranded assets. Evidence:
2/16

First up: credit to @CarbonBubble & @CampanaleMark for popularising the idea of ‘unburnable carbon’, the ‘carbon bubble’, and ‘stranded assets’, over a decade ago. Many reports on their website and this recent video is v good
https://youtu.be/lsgmc5EGzvs ">https://youtu.be/lsgmc5EGz... 3/16

If peer-reviewed is what you need, there are 2 Nature papers –McGlade & Ekins “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C” (but this is not the more stringent Paris target of ‘well below’ 2 °C)

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
4/16

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting glo

If global warming is to be limited in this century to the much-publicized 2 °C rise compared to pre-industrial levels, fossil fuel use and the associated release of greenhouse gases will need to be...

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016

& a more recent survey by Tong et al which looks at 1.5 °C
“Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target”

– as the title suggests, there’s no room for more fossil infrastructure

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1364-3">https://www.nature.com/articles/... 5/16

Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5

A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1364-3

& this in the journal Climatic Change, by Jaccard et al from 2018, which adds in an assessment of financial viability, eg of Canada’s oil sands projects https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2206-2

6/16">https://link.springer.com/article/1...

Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects

Policy-makers of some fossil fuel-endowed countries wish to know if a given fossil fuel supply project is consistent with the global carbon budget that would prevent a 2 °C temperature rise. But...

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2206-2

going back a bit, here’s an early paper (2013) from Jim Hansen and colleagues that most fuels need to stay in the ground

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648">https://journals.plos.org/plosone/a...

& similar from 2014 by Matthews

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/111001/meta

7/16">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young...

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global...

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648

Then there’s the brilliant @UNEP ‘Production Gap’ report, which looks at the gap between what’s needed to meet Paris commitments, and what plans countries have to extract coal, oil & gas (spoiler: it’s quite a gap)

https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2019">https://www.unenvironment.org/resources...

8/16

Production Gap Report 2019

The Production Gap Report – produced by leading research organizations and the UN – is the first assessment of the gap between the targets of the Paris Agreement and countries’ planned production of...

https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2019

And there’s more! This from @IPPR @tomhillonline is particularly good at analysing what all this means for UK policy
https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/faster-further-fairer">https://www.ippr.org/research/... 9/16

And there’s more! This from @IPPR @tomhillonline is particularly good at analysing what all this means for UK policy https://www.ippr.org/research/... 9/16

…. that IPPR report uses this research by NGO @PriceofOil, arguing for a managed decline of fossil production

http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/22/the-skys-limit-report/

10/16">https://priceofoil.org/2016/09/2...

The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production -...

A new study released by Oil Change International scientifically grounds the growing movement to keep carbon in the ground by revealing the need to stop all new fossil fuel infrastructure and industry...

http://priceofoil.org/2016/09/22/the-skys-limit-report/

here’s a @the_IDB paper on oil production in Latin America and the Caribbean, warning that countries who rely on revenues from oil really need to diversify

https://publications.iadb.org/en/implications-climate-targets-oil-production-and-fiscal-revenues-latin-america-and-caribbean
11/16">https://publications.iadb.org/en/implic...

& further warning from @ChathamHouse about the perils of low income countries relying on income from fossil fuel production

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/carbon-risk-resilience-how-energy-transition-changing-prospects-countries-fossil#

12/16">https://www.chathamhouse.org/publicati...

Carbon Risk and Resilience: How Energy Transition is Changing the

Lower-income countries that are banking on their fossil fuels lack the capacity to assess carbon risks, and may be left behind by shifts in investment and credit.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/carbon-risk-resilience-how-energy-transition-changing-prospects-countries-fossil#

and just in case you need to be further jolted, see p39 of this, again from @UNEP, which says just how bad things could get if we start exploiting gas hydrates.

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1993GasHydrates_Vol2_screen.pdf

13/16">https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/d...

A couple of extras: this paper talks about retiring fossil power plants

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3

And">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1... this one takes on the all-important topic of how to account for unburnable carbon.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1045235418300467

14/16">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Fossil fuel reserves and resources reporting and unburnable carbon: Investigating conflicting...

This paper investigates fossil fuel reserves and resources disclosures and how they might change in response to global climate change agreements that …

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3

So that’s it. For now. It’s pretty conclusive. But, you know, @WCumbriaMining @The_Banks_Group and others, if you think differently, please do tell me which peer-reviewed and similarly respectable studies offer evidence that it’s ok to dig up and burn more.

15/16

With huge thanks to everyone who commented including
@st_pye @nicklaus_taylor @Eco_melon @SteveDavisUCI @TomBHarrison @damon_matthews @Kretzmann @jim_smoot @cityatlas @theresphysics @jonathangaventa @Glada_Lahn @tomhillonline
@ChathamSian @samwisehawkins @IanPChristie

16/16

& really sorry if I missed anyone off this list, tell me & I& #39;ll add you!

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