THREAD: I don't have time to dig into this fully and beyond the obvious "hey, let's use government money to excuse my bad decision" reality of @NYGovCuomo nursing home COVID-19 decision--it killed a lot of people. There's a huge problem with the analysis. 1/ https://twitter.com/TomPreciousALB/status/1280156958092406784

2/ Here's the key reasoning of the "analysis." @NYGovCuomo administration blames death on staff because of "average length of time between infections to death is between 18 - 25 days" and peak of staff symptoms to death was 23 days.

3/ When I saw average my antenna went up b/c we're talking about elderly folks and I'd think they'd have a short time period, so I went to the footnote. (Always read the footnotes.)

4/ But then always read the primary source. Un-frickin' real. The study is based on....data from 24 patients in mainland China!! (Full study here): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

5/ And even if you could believe the data from China, nothing noted on age. But you know what, the internet is kinda cool, as you can easily research medical literature. And lookie here: A much larger study of older people w/ co-morbidities (like you'd find in a nursing home)

6/ The average from onset to death there? 15 days. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118526/
That throws a pretty big wrench in Cuomo's excuse making. What else is off in analysis? And frankly bottom line: He is still responsible for what he did, even if staff's infections cause other deaths.

7/7 But it is still pretty shocking to see this report set up an analysis based on shoddy science. END