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Interesting dilemma the NLD finds itself in: party seems split on whether a deal may be in works to allow Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing to become president in exchange for delivering constitutional reform 1/n: https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-nld-distances-senior-members-comment-presidency-military-chief.html
I've been skeptical of speculation that MAH's popularity may be linked to a possible presidential bid in Myanmar for a long time 2/n: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/world/asia/myanmar-rohingya-min-aung-hlaing.html
For one, if the NLD wins more than 50% of seats, it essentially gets to choose the Pres. Lower House & Upper House each nominate one candidate, while military 1/4 nominate a 3rd; then Union Parliament votes & candidate w/ most votes becomes Pres., while other 2 become VPs. 3/n
So a scenario where a military-selected candidate, such as Min Aung Hlaing, becomes president seems extremely unlikely. Then again... there is no clause that holds the NLD to nominating a candidate FROM their own party, so in theory they could select MAH as their guy. 4/n
But NLD party leader Aung San Suu Kyi & MAH are not known to be close. In fact, they rarely meet at all ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics/myanmars-civilian-military-leaders-meet-vow-to-crush-rakhine-rebels-idUSKCN1P118S). So it appears very unlikely that they've worked out any deal. 5/n
Still there have been rumors of late that MAH may be interested in a political career:
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/myanmars-military-chief-become-president.html
https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tatmadaw-chief-sets-sights-politics.html
6/n
https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/myanmars-military-chief-become-president.html
https://www.mmtimes.com/news/tatmadaw-chief-sets-sights-politics.html
6/n
Given that one of the NLD's top priorities from 2015 & forthcoming 2020 election manifesto is constitutional reform (another is peace), perhaps ASSK calculates a MAH presidential compromise could be the only way to achieve those aims. 7/n
After all, the NLD's efforts to reform the 2008 Constitution in early 2020 failed due to the military's essential veto card over constitutional change, which mandates 75% support in Parliament. 8/n
Then again, however, ASSK has not shown herself to be fond of compromise. If anything, she has proven her stubbornness & willingness to dig in on issues even when faced with overwhelming opposition (see Rohingya crisis & Hague trial: https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/12/17/aung-san-suu-kyi-denies-burmese-genocide-rohingya-hague). 9/n
So personally I'm not convinced ASSK would be ready to make such a deal to allow MAH to be president. BUT in a realpolitik-type move, she may calculate that ultimately the presidency is a mostly symbolic office. So perhaps little cost to NLD to do so... 10/n
Also notable that U Win Htein, who started these latest rumors in an interview w/ @BBCWorld, is no longer as influential w/in the NLD & is now surely on the outs among party leadership: https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/nld-candidate-selection-sparks-controversy-ahead-of-election/. So important to take his comments with a heaping dose of salt. 11/n
NLD party spokesperson Zaw Myint Maung has denied Win Htein's comments to BBC, saying that is "not the stance of the NLD": https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-nld-distances-senior-members-comment-presidency-military-chief.html 12/n
So suffice it to say, if I had to place my money on the most likely scenario: No, NLD will not make a deal to nominate Min Aung Hlaing to be Pres. It will continue to put its own people forward. Then again, stranger things have happened in #Myanmar politics...
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