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COVID Update July 7: I spent the last 24 hours with 3 scientists, all of whom have seen vaccine data, 2 of whom are former regulators, all of whom have opinion.
Will
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Will
My core question was what the world is going to look like in 3 years but asked other things as well.
(I go into detail on vaccines and trails & everything on upcoming #inthebubble).
2/
(I go into detail on vaccines and trails & everything on upcoming #inthebubble).
2/
Starting with a slew of good news. 3/
The vaccine data from Oxford (being run in Brazil looks strong). No real safety issues so far. Gives people the antibodies.
People are getting it post-COVID & some will in a challenge trial. 4/
People are getting it post-COVID & some will in a challenge trial. 4/
What “works” means— how long & for whom is less clear. But probably more like a flu vaccine (40%?) vs MMR (97%).
There will be multiple vaccines after the first expected in the Fall. Each likely progressively better. 5/
There will be multiple vaccines after the first expected in the Fall. Each likely progressively better. 5/
The monoclonal antibody therapy is also very exciting. Maybe even more so than a vaccine. If you get infected, it’s another way to confer immunity & prevent it from advancing. 6/
Therapy trials are easier and quicker than vaccine trials.
Frustration that some vaccine trials are moving too slowly & not sharing data other than in press releases. That’s something people can advocate for. 7/
Frustration that some vaccine trials are moving too slowly & not sharing data other than in press releases. That’s something people can advocate for. 7/
Everyone— and I can’t emphasize this enough— was a huge proponent of masks. Efforts to invalidate masks were considered absurd. 8/
The reason I mention these things is that the principal thing I learned is that the future will be defined by all of these things in combination: vaccines, therapies, masks, and other human interventions. 9/
Mutations yes, but there wasn’t much concern that vaccines could keep up.
Also viruses become less deadly over time and there is cross-immunity and other potential 10/
Also viruses become less deadly over time and there is cross-immunity and other potential 10/
T-cells more important and less understood than antibodies. 11/
What is the FDAs hurdle for approving an EUA?
Safety and a 50% or greater chance of improvement. 12/
Safety and a 50% or greater chance of improvement. 12/
In 6 months or so, so far science is doing as well as our leaders are doing poorly. 13/
The future is always murky but given what I heard I asked: so, optimistic about reducing lethality but not eradication? Basically that’s what it sounded like.
Yes, there will be a new normal. 14/
Yes, there will be a new normal. 14/
What’s in this new normal? Will I be able to hug my mother?
The answers landed on “I hope so.” But no promises. 15/
The answers landed on “I hope so.” But no promises. 15/
Will people wear masks in the future?
Hope that we are more like Asia where this becomes a norm, particularly when people are sick. 16/
Hope that we are more like Asia where this becomes a norm, particularly when people are sick. 16/
Crowds, arenas?
Take it slowly. Masks and immunity and digital apps will help. But people will be taking risks.
Antibody therapies could make catching CV less deadly & therefore a more acceptable risk. 17/
Take it slowly. Masks and immunity and digital apps will help. But people will be taking risks.
Antibody therapies could make catching CV less deadly & therefore a more acceptable risk. 17/
What will the time before a vaccine look like?
Crappy. Horrible response in the US. Way too many unnecessary deaths. Fall will be awful. 18/
Crappy. Horrible response in the US. Way too many unnecessary deaths. Fall will be awful. 18/
Chance that the early vaccines turn out to be unsafe or don’t pan out? Possible but low. 19/
Will people be able to trust what they hear from the FDA or Trump Administration?
It’s an issue.
Will you?
Likely. Will look at the data.
Would you take a vaccine?
Depends on the data.
Expect there to be data before approval?
Yes.
Will you speak out no matter what?
Yes. 20/
It’s an issue.
Will you?
Likely. Will look at the data.
Would you take a vaccine?
Depends on the data.
Expect there to be data before approval?
Yes.
Will you speak out no matter what?
Yes. 20/
This felt like a realistic glimpse into the future: continuously better. Not one dramatic moment.
No “life before vaccine” or “life after vaccine.” But gradual changes. 21/
No “life before vaccine” or “life after vaccine.” But gradual changes. 21/
The major takeaway. There absolutely is a light at the end of the tunnel even if it’s hard to see sometimes. Even if our leaders have made this harder. Even if it’s very dispiriting. 22/
The hard things will pass if we’re patient (which is hard) & pass more quickly if we make tougher decisions.
I know the marathon is harder to run when you don’t know what mile you’re at. But if you count on & help others, I view it better as a relay race. /end
I know the marathon is harder to run when you don’t know what mile you’re at. But if you count on & help others, I view it better as a relay race. /end
PS If people have different knowledge, feel free to add it.
In this area, I’m not an expert. Just trying to give the benefit of my network.
In this area, I’m not an expert. Just trying to give the benefit of my network.
Maybe I got the date wrong. Maybe I didn’t and I’m writing this for people in Europe. No need to judge.
