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What will happen if Manchester City's appeal fails [a Thread] 1/
Everyone knows about the Man City appeal of UEFA's charge that they breached FFP by "financial doping" (the owners increasing sponsorship money by paying money to sponsors on top of what they were providing already) 2/
The implications of an unsuccessful City appeal may seem obvious (the original ban and fine are upheld) however this would likely only be the tip of the iceberg, not only this but a City appeal may be partially successful which would also have consequences. 3/
Before we get into specific scenarios we must examine the ramifications of the City appeal failing to any degree (excluding the scenario that they are cleared of FFP breaches but found guilty of failing to co-operate with the UEFA investigation) 4/
The first ramification would be an immediate punishment from the Premier League. Premier League rule E.4.2 states that clubs' accounts must contain a breakdown including sponsorship. If City are found to be in breach, the accounts (which are the same as those submitted to... 5/
... the league) would be in breach of these rules and thus would open them up to sanction. In this scenario under rule W.3 the Premier League board has 3 potential options: Refer the club to the FA, Refer the club to a Commission or exercise it's "summary jurisdiction" 6/
The board's "summary jurisdiction" would logically be the way forward since it provides the speediest resolution since the board itself makes the decision on punishment, an issue arises because this punishment is limited to a £25,000 fine (unlikely to be considered sufficient) 7/
seeing as though referral to the FA is generally used in cases of on-field discipline (such as bans) it is likely that the league will call a commission to investigate the allegations (if they haven't already). The powers this commission holds are: 8/
- To suspend City from any match or matches (both at senior and youth level) for as long as it thinks fit (W.49.4.1)
- To deduct points both from this season and/or from future seasons (W.49.4.2)
- To recommend the league expels City (W.49.4.4) 9/
- To deduct points both from this season and/or from future seasons (W.49.4.2)
- To recommend the league expels City (W.49.4.4) 9/
We know that clubs are unlikely to vote for an expulsion (according to rule B.7 3/4 of teams must vote for the expulsion) as they feel it would be "a step too far" 10/ https://talksport.com/football/673857/man-city-european-ban-premier-league-relegated/
It is also unlikely that City would be stopped from playing any games. In normal circumstances, this would be a massive financial burden on a club, however due to COVID-19, this is unlikely to have any significant effect 11/
The most likely outcome, therefore, is some sort of points deduction. There is some precedent from other sports when it comes to points deductions for financial irregularities. Saracens were fined £5.36m and docked 35 points for breaching the rugby league's salary cap 12/
they were later hit with a further deduction of 70 points when they failed to come into compliance. It is unlikely that City will face any sort of deduction this season however they may well start next season on a points deduction. It is also possible that they may have 13/
points retroactively deducted. Since the allegations are from 2012-16 which would affect City's title wins in 11/12 and 13/14. It is unclear whether this would involve Man U and Liverpool being declared winners or City's win being removed from the record. 14/
The second ramification is that UEFA would likely open proceedings against PSG. The last time City were charged with an FFP breach in 2014, PSG were also charged with a similar breach. As I have mentioned previously, the current allegations include the breaches from that case 15/
which have been re-opened due to the Der Spiegel football leaks revelations. If the City case is upheld, this would likely provide grounds to re-examine the PSG breach and may lead to a similar sanction for the french club. 16/
Now that we have discussed the likely ramifications of City's appeal failing, we must now turn to the ramifications of different degrees of charge. First we will cover a cover a scenario where the punishment is reduced a minor level similar to 2015. 17/
If this is the outcome, we will likely see the end of FFP as a significant factor for European football since it would have been conclusively proven that any club who has the ability to significantly benefit from breaching FFP will have the ability to fight any charge. 18/
We would likely also see a rise in several new super-clubs backed by rich owners, raising prices in the transfer market and sidelining other teams. We have already begun to see this football class system (the rich and the rest) where the rest are rarely able to win. 19/
The second scenario we will cover is one where a punishment is reduced but City are still banned from the Champions League (for example a fine and a one year ban) 20/
In this scenario City will likely face a Premier League points deduction for next season (though likely only a relatively modest deduction of 12-15 points) as well as a stripping of their titles from 2012 and 2014. This will likely prevent them from winning the league but... 21/
... will likely not draw them into a relegation battle. It is unlikely that any significant players (who were not already planning to leave this summer) would leave and while there may be some small impact to the club's transfer dealings it is unlikely major targets would... 22/
... be unwilling to join the club. It would, however, damage the club's reputation which may affect it's long term ability to sign sponsors or attract investment. 23/
The final scenario we will cover is one where the punishment is completely or almost completely upheld meaning a two year Champions League ban (with or without a fine). 24/
