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1/Today's @bopinion post is a meditation on @Peter_Turchin's theory of "elite overproduction", as applied to today's unrest. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-06/the-rich-and-privileged-can-revolt-too
2/A while back, I wrote a thread about a narrow slice of this -- shrinking opportunities for humanities grads.
Today's post is more general. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1040785903201861632
Today's post is more general. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1040785903201861632
3/Americans' level of dissatisfaction is just off the charts right now. Obviously this is a phenomenon that goes far beyond the elite.
But the fact that even the people who are on top of this mess are not happy about the mess cries out for an explanation.
But the fact that even the people who are on top of this mess are not happy about the mess cries out for an explanation.
4/The historian Peter Turchin believes unrest happens regularly, about every 50 years.
And he thinks that one of the big causes is "elite overproduction" -- society produces a lot of people who expect top spots, but who can't all get top spots. http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/intra-elite-competition-a-key-concept-for-understanding-the-dynamics-of-complex-societies/
And he thinks that one of the big causes is "elite overproduction" -- society produces a lot of people who expect top spots, but who can't all get top spots. http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/intra-elite-competition-a-key-concept-for-understanding-the-dynamics-of-complex-societies/
5/Wealth and income are being increasingly concentrated at the top of the distribution.
30 years ago, having $20 million made you stinking rich. Today, $20 million makes you a pebble next to one of Mark Zuckerberg's toes.
30 years ago, having $20 million made you stinking rich. Today, $20 million makes you a pebble next to one of Mark Zuckerberg's toes.
6/And the means of production are getting more concentrated too. Across industry after industry, a few big companies are beating all the rest.
https://economics.mit.edu/files/12544
https://economics.mit.edu/files/12544
7/So we're producing more and more would-be rich people -- entrepreneurs and heirs, mostly -- who are competing for a shrinking number of Olympian thrones.
8/What about the intellectual elite?
We're producing ever more PhDs, but the end of 20th century university expansion, and cuts in state funding, mean that many more would-be academics are becoming lecturers and adjuncts.
We're producing ever more PhDs, but the end of 20th century university expansion, and cuts in state funding, mean that many more would-be academics are becoming lecturers and adjuncts.
9/Law, too, is an increasingly brutal competition. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/peter-turchin-how-elite-overproduction-and-lawyer-glut-could-ruin-the-u-s
10/And in politics, the number of top jobs is fixed by the size of Congress and state legislatures.
Across every field of endeavor and ambition in the U.S., we've increased the number of strivers and shrunk the window for success.
Across every field of endeavor and ambition in the U.S., we've increased the number of strivers and shrunk the window for success.
11/How do we fix this? How do we balance ambition and success?
We can't just create infinite top spots. Infinite megabillionaires, infinite prestigious professorships, infinite legislators, etc.
Instead, we have to manage expectations, and moderate the cutthroat competition.
We can't just create infinite top spots. Infinite megabillionaires, infinite prestigious professorships, infinite legislators, etc.
Instead, we have to manage expectations, and moderate the cutthroat competition.
12/One way to do this is by taxing inheritances heavily.
That way, there will be fewer wealthy heirs who expect a spot in the nation's elite as their birthright. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/opinion/inheritance-tax-inequality.html
That way, there will be fewer wealthy heirs who expect a spot in the nation's elite as their birthright. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/opinion/inheritance-tax-inequality.html
13/Wealth taxes can obviously help with this too. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-10/wealth-tax-is-worth-trying-to-raise-revenue-and-lower-inequality?sref=R8NfLgwS
14/And we need to stop pumping out so many PhDs, and direct more of our PhDs toward the private sector instead of getting their hopes set on a tenured faculty job. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-04/too-many-people-dream-of-a-charmed-life-in-academia?sref=R8NfLgwS
15/And of course there are other tweaks, like expanding the House of Representatives. https://mereorthodoxy.com/congressional-apportionment-amendment/
16/Unless we moderate the expectations of the next generation of elites, @Peter_Turchin teaches us, we risk unrest.
Elites are the people with the most time and resources to overthrow society. Piss them off at your peril.
(end) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-06/the-rich-and-privileged-can-revolt-too
Elites are the people with the most time and resources to overthrow society. Piss them off at your peril.
(end) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-06/the-rich-and-privileged-can-revolt-too
