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Now that reports of disengagement from the PP-14 flashpoint of Galwan Valley have come out. I am piecing together my thoughts of what it could mean, does India has given into Chinese deceptive call for disengagement?
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First let's look at what Chinese objectives were:
- Take adv of Indian troops thinning out due to Covid-19 situation, pre-emptively amasse at the LAC grey areas of Pangong Tso
- Take control of PP-14, deny patrolling access to Ind troops (new claim by shifitng LAC to DSDBO road)
- Take adv of Indian troops thinning out due to Covid-19 situation, pre-emptively amasse at the LAC grey areas of Pangong Tso
- Take control of PP-14, deny patrolling access to Ind troops (new claim by shifitng LAC to DSDBO road)
- Avenge the humiliation at Doklam
- Put India in it's 'Asia no.2' place and raise the cost of aligning with the US.
- Put India in it's 'Asia no.2' place and raise the cost of aligning with the US.
Now coming back to the mutually agreed disengagement on 30th June. The 14hr long Lt. Gen Level meeting's crux was that every disengagement would have a Senior Chinese Official not just the CO on ground to carry out the disengagement. Check brief
Also, that the pulling back of troops from near the flashpoints would require verification through a 72-hr window, both sides would physically verify and also through ISR assets. A very gradual step by step disengagement is what seems to have now been initiated.
Now, as news of Doval-Wang Yi talk hv come out. The fine print of 'agreed' points seems like India has gone back to previous state of affairs, that we have been a reactionary power, not a proactive one.
I don't agree with it. Few points indicate that we deterred the Chinese well.
I don't agree with it. Few points indicate that we deterred the Chinese well.
1. Indians carried on with their infra works despite pressure of standoff, leading to completion of crucial bridges that provided access to PP-14. Main reason for Chinese build up at Galwan was this very aspect , +
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the Last Mile connectivity approach with which India has been speedily scaling up border infrastructure in past decade and much aggressively in the last six years. https://swarajyamag.com/defence/india-is-building-border-roads-faster-than-before-this-could-be-one-reason-behind-chinas-aggressive-posture-along-the-lac
the Last Mile connectivity approach with which India has been speedily scaling up border infrastructure in past decade and much aggressively in the last six years. https://swarajyamag.com/defence/india-is-building-border-roads-faster-than-before-this-could-be-one-reason-behind-chinas-aggressive-posture-along-the-lac
2. In the gruesome 15/16th June clash, the Chinese failed in their pre-planned attempt of inflicting damage to the Indian patroling party lead by CO Babu who with 19 others was KIA. The Chinese seemed to have suffered more casualties which was a shocker +
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as this brief from Shiv Aroor tells us - "The tactical debrief report also records the 16 Bihar's assessment that the Chn troops involved in the brawl were not the regular unit deployed on frontlines of LAC n involved in multiple rounds of talks" https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/3-separate-brawls-outsider-chinese-troops-more-most-detailed-account-of-the-brutal-june-15-galwan-battle-1691185-2020-06-21
as this brief from Shiv Aroor tells us - "The tactical debrief report also records the 16 Bihar's assessment that the Chn troops involved in the brawl were not the regular unit deployed on frontlines of LAC n involved in multiple rounds of talks" https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/3-separate-brawls-outsider-chinese-troops-more-most-detailed-account-of-the-brutal-june-15-galwan-battle-1691185-2020-06-21
There were unconfirmed reports that these were Chinese SF; this unit was not acclimatized and purposely deployed to ambush CO Babu and his men, possibly followed by damaging Indian bridges in the vicinity of PP-14.
The casualties on Chinese side has wrecked their morale owing to the horrors of the bloody clash, so words fly from unit to unit. Fear has found its way into the right people. https://twitter.com/aniket0608/status/1274658829544747010?s=20
3. The Chinese in the Fingers area moved earlier in later half of April and denied access to Indian patrols beyond F4, capturing ridges, setting up camps near lake banks. However, this must not be seen as a total fait accompli because even the PLA used to patrol till F2.
GOI, through its denial of any Chinese incursion (though aimed re: Galwan) has also smartly denied them any claim till F-2 as well and F-4 will be the last patrol point for either sides for sometime now. GOI (MEA) has been firm on restoring on status quo ante before May 2020.
4. Come the winter onset and PLA will be faced with another daunting challenge of inhabitable heights. This has worried them, as their supplies run out, they are set for doing heavy lifting (compared to IA) to keep up with troop strength and morale at 15,000ft+ peaks/ridges.
It must be noted that acclimatization done over 3 weeks is not the same as being deployed on this very front for more than 2–3 years, this is what forms the bulk of Indian Infantry across the sector, the Chinese very well know this fact. A massive advantage.
5. Mind you, the bloody fight at Galwan has thrown every bit of trust that was present between India and China into the trashcan (as if the standoff prior to that wasn't enough). There is much condemnation for CCP than ever thanks to their myopic misadventures in HK, +
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it's neighbourhood in the SCS and the Juggernaut at their western border.
6. PLA over the recent years have been downsizing in order to modernise itself on similar lines and command structure as that of US Army, investing heavily in enhancing its Naval and Air Power. +
it's neighbourhood in the SCS and the Juggernaut at their western border.
6. PLA over the recent years have been downsizing in order to modernise itself on similar lines and command structure as that of US Army, investing heavily in enhancing its Naval and Air Power. +
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This doctrine has taken a hit for CCP needs to maintain near parity with IA, this is coming at a high cost that will dent them as long as the standoff remains. While PLAN and other half of ground forces are getting worried of the might of USN on their East.
This doctrine has taken a hit for CCP needs to maintain near parity with IA, this is coming at a high cost that will dent them as long as the standoff remains. While PLAN and other half of ground forces are getting worried of the might of USN on their East.
7. Chinese have lost a lot over a planned small land grab. Amidst talk of econ. boycott,
denied Chinese Tech Cos vast data pool and further calls have been made for decoupling our economy with theirs, this has cost on India too, but much greater one 4
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/interview/for-minor-tactical-gains-on-the-ground-china-has-strategically-lost-india-says-former-indian-ambassador-to-china/article31884054.ece
denied Chinese Tech Cos vast data pool and further calls have been made for decoupling our economy with theirs, this has cost on India too, but much greater one 4 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/interview/for-minor-tactical-gains-on-the-ground-china-has-strategically-lost-india-says-former-indian-ambassador-to-china/article31884054.ece
US has already denied Huawei and ZTE from 5G. UK has rolled out a Citizenship Bill for HK citizens, Canada has suspended extradition of Huawei officials (a highly unexpected move).
Check this thread from @iRohanSachdeva to get a brief on what China has lost in short time.
Check this thread from @iRohanSachdeva to get a brief on what China has lost in short time.
All this points to the fact that China through misadventures with neighbors on disputed territories, floating new claims, violence and posturing has rang alarm bells not just across West but now Russia as well and it seems the Dragon is on its own.
I am hopeful of the govt. being wary off all Chinese moves including this disengagement process, the fact remains Chinese can't be trusted and no amount of sweet words should (or will) lead to the Tiger softening. India should continue making agressive policy decisions against.
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IA is prepared for the long haul and within a span of two months we've, this time around been able to deter (and inflict cost) on the Chinese. The idea as to why ROE was followed does't hold much weight as we've been a rule based power and carry the baggage. +
Any change needed must come through a decisive China, and larger Foreign Policy change, which, I think will happen for all political parties except the Left and INC are with GOI. They will contribute significantly in this too.
As for speculations for war, I'd leave with what PM said on 3rd Jul - "The era of expansionism has come to an end. This is the era of development...History has proved that expansionist forces have either lost or were forced to turn back." “Strength is a pre-condition for peace."
Visible disengagement of about 1.5 kms on Chinese Side at Galwan Valley. https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1280487994097426432?s=19
