“At the current rate of spending, Iraq requires an oil price of $76 per bbl to finance its current 2020 expenses.” https://twitter.com/wfp_iraq/status/1279120578851606528

“The unsustainable stimulus package introduced following the demonstrations in Oct 19- including increasing public sector employment, lowering the retirement age, & providing various cash transfers- coupled with weaker oil revenues are expected to have detrimental fiscal effects”

“If oil prices stabilize at $30-35 per bbl for the rest of 2020 and no reform measures are taken, the budget deficit would exceed 29% of GDP in 2020 and gross financing needs would reach $67 billion, around 39% of GDP.”

“Under this scenario, Iraq will have to resort to a mixture of domestic and foreign sources to finance the deficit. Heavy reliance on local banks will crowd out the available liquidity for private sector credit facilities,”

“while borrowing from international markets may prove to be difficult given global market conditions and a weak macroeconomic framework in Iraq.”

“As for May 2020, foreign currency reserves can only cover up to 6 months of imports, exacerbating the vulnerability of the country to external shocks and undermining the country’s ability to finance food imports and local subsidy programs.”