From an outsider’s perspective, the 2014 indyref was all about Scotland’s relationship with England. The next will likely about Scotland’s relationship with the EU. England won’t feature much.

2020 is a very different world than 2014. SNP have a different, popular and more consensual leader. Scottish Labour are dead in the water. England has gone hard Brexit. The prime minister is easily confused with a children’s entertainer.

It’s difficult to not to come to the conclusion the UK has been broken by the Brexit ultras, who will react to Scotland’s independence with a sharp “piss off if you don’t like being in our amazing, world beating country”.

No country ever became poorer by joining the EU. The rich countries got richer. So did the poor countries. Ireland’s economy was transformed. Perhaps the Better Together campaign can persuade Scots that their best interests lie in Westminster. Perhaps.

Winnie Ewing famously said: “Stop the world, Scotland wants to get on!” At that point the SNP was fringe politics. They’ve been in government in Scotland now for 13 years. Judging by these numbers they’re not going anywhere.

Like I said, the referendum isn’t even scheduled and when it is there will be a well funded Better Together campaign. Perhaps it will be run by the genius Dominic Cummings.

In conclusion, it’s looking like the divorce, put off in 2014 to give the U.K. another chance, is coming. And Scotland would be well within her rights to claim unreasonable behaviour.