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COVID-19: Where are we now #5
1.Victoria has had an outbreak of COVID-19, going from no new cases on the 9th of June to 108 yesterday (5th July), and an increase in hospitalised patients from 6 to 28 during the last week. /2
1.Victoria has had an outbreak of COVID-19, going from no new cases on the 9th of June to 108 yesterday (5th July), and an increase in hospitalised patients from 6 to 28 during the last week. /2
2.Over the same period, NSW cases rose from 2 to 14, QLD & WA had a few sporadic cases, SA had 3 cases, NT a single imported case, and ACT & TAS none. /3
3.Plotting VIC cases caused by local or unknown spread (including those under investigation), shows that international arrivals are not directly responsible for the outbreak. This outbreak is primarily due to local transmission. /4
4.COVID-19 testing in VIC has largely been initiated by people voluntarily attending testing stations after suffering from symptoms. When tested, they are asked to show their Medicare card or some form of ID. If a test is +ve, contact tracing is done almost entirely by phone. /5
5.The concern with this approach is that it is dependent on public engagement with testing. Large communities have structure, and within that, subgroups engage with the broader community to different degrees. /6
6.People living in poverty, with mental health or mobility issues, with lapsed visas and/or language or other communication problems (such as no phone) may be unreachable with such an approach. /7
7.This became clear with the Cedar Meats outbreak, in which a typical superspreader environment (crowed, noisy, need for communication, poor air circulation) met with a disadvantaged workforce (low pay, poor security, language problems). /8
8.Subsequently, the State Government attempted to identify other potential subgroups in which the virus was spreading unchecked, by increasing target numbers, lowering symptom severity required for a test, and attempting to engage MSM to promote test availability. /9
9.Although this approach did not directly address the underlying problems, was poorly supported by the predominantly Liberal Party aligned MSM, and was directly opposed by several Liberal Party MPs, it identified many more cases of local transmission. /10
10. In following contacts of the cases identified, Public Health Officers identified many cases in Melbourne's inner West and Northern suburbs (about 75% of VIC cases), and for the first time in Aust, systematic testing of affected areas was attempted. /11
11.Remarkably, ~10,000 people refused testing; some referred to disinformation campaigns spread on social media sites, which in the US have been linked to covert operations by a foreign power. /12
12.The only effective mechanisms of limiting deaths and disability caused by COVID-19 are Public Health measures and they are being undermined to varying extents by the actions of MSM, social media and political opposition. /13
13.Despite these difficulties, in tracing the contacts of those cases identified, Public Health Officers identified 23 new cases in 12 households in 9 Flemington and North Melbourne public housing towers. /14
14.Initial contact tracing suggests that hundreds of people within these towers have already been exposed to the virus. The Public Health Officers had found their unengaged subgroup, living as an underclass within Melbourne’s larger community structure. /15
http://15.At the time of writing, 12 Melbourne postcodes are in lockdown. Many of these suburbs are an easy walking distance to the CBD; the public transport that runs through them passes through the CBD to suburbs to the city’s South & East. /16
http://16.It is therefore likely that the whole of Melbourne’s metropolitan area will be locked down, if not today, then within a week.
17.COVID-19 kills about 5% of those infected; it leaves another 10% chronically ill. It is highly contagious and easily spread. There is no vaccine, and the drugs that have any effect have little effect & are restricted to the most severe cases. /18
18.There is no Plan B. There is only the Public Health response. PLEASE: Engage, follow medical advice, cooperate with Public Health Officers, wear a mask, wash your hands regularly, use hand sanitiser, block coughs and sneezes, and get tested. /19
