Reforms are urgently needed in Lebanon, but none have been initiated 9 months after the crisis hit. Why the inaction of power elites, in the face of a collapsing economy? Seven explanations, each with some internal coherence, are being debated (a thread): 1/6

1. Sheer ignorance and incompetence

2. Structural: inaction is in the DNA of power sharing (explains why it got us into the wall in the first place)

2/6

3. Waiting for Godot: elites waiting for regional change (US elections, etc.), surviving a little longer on remaining reserves ( @jobahout, @Confusezeus) 3/6

4. Defensive suicide: elites know their days are numbered - looting what is left as the boat sinks

5. New elite bargain: negotiating the distribution of losses takes time given their immensity ( @abisat) 4/6

6. Negotiating with the street: elites inflicting pain so that a new power sharing deal (Hariri/Basil) with minimal reforms (Liralisation) becomes acceptable ( @BeirutCalling, @paul_salem, @Nasser_Saidi) 5/6

7. Negotiating with the world: elites expect unconditional support, and threaten an influx of refugees otherwise ( @jobahout) 6/6